TMGTalaat Moustafa Group HoldingEGX_DLY:TMGHQQQQ9999Technical Analysis – Talaat Moustafa Group Holding The chart shows two market views: Left: USD chart and Right: EGP chart. The key message is that the stock looks much stronger in Egyptian pounds than in US dollars, which suggests that part of the rise may be linked to currency effects, not only pure company performance. 1. EGP Chart – Strong Bullish Structure On the EGP monthly chart, the stock is in a clear long-term uptrend. The price moved through several phases: Phase 1: accumulation and early rise. Phase 2: correction/base formation. Phase 3: major breakout and strong bullish expansion. Phase 4: pullback/consolidation after the first big rally. Phase 5: new breakout attempt toward higher levels. The current price is around EGP 96, and the stock is trading near historical highs. This confirms strong bullish momentum, but it also means the stock is no longer cheap from a technical timing perspective. Key levels in EGP Support zones: 91–92 EGP: immediate support. 84–86 EGP: important short-term support. 72–76 EGP: deeper correction zone. 60–64 EGP: major structural support. Resistance / Targets: 100–104 EGP: psychological and technical resistance. 108–112 EGP: next bullish extension zone if momentum continues. A clean monthly close above 96–100 EGP would support continuation toward the upper target zone. But failure near this area may lead to a correction. 2. USD Chart – Different Picture In USD terms, the chart is less convincing. The stock is still below the previous major spike area around 2.35–2.92 USD. The current price is around 1.78 USD, meaning the stock has recovered strongly, but it has not yet fully broken its previous USD-adjusted resistance levels. This is important because the EGP chart may show a strong nominal rise, while the USD chart shows that the international value of the stock has not recovered to the same extent. Key USD Fibonacci levels From the chart: 0.89 USD: 23.6% level 1.28 USD: 38.2% level 1.59 USD: 50% level 1.90 USD: 61.8% level 2.35 USD: 78.6% level 2.92 USD: previous high zone The stock is now trading near the area between 1.59 and 1.90 USD. This is a sensitive zone. A breakout above 1.90 USD would be positive and may open the way toward 2.35 USD. But failure below 1.90 may trigger profit-taking. 3. Main Scenario The main bullish scenario remains valid as long as the stock holds above: EGP 84–86 and ideally above EGP 91–92 If it holds these levels and breaks above EGP 100, the next target may be around EGP 108–112. In USD terms, confirmation would require a break above 1.90 USD, then the next important level becomes 2.35 USD. 4. Risk Scenario The risk is that the stock is already extended after a sharp rise. If the price fails near EGP 96–100 and breaks below EGP 91, this may indicate short-term weakness. A stronger negative signal would appear if the stock breaks below EGP 84–86, because that would suggest the latest breakout is losing strength. In USD terms, failure below 1.59 USD would weaken the structure and may send the stock back toward 1.28 USD. Conclusion Talaat Moustafa is technically bullish in EGP, but the USD chart shows that the move is less powerful when adjusted for currency impact. For traders, the stock is attractive only if it holds above the recent breakout zones. For new investors, chasing the stock at current levels carries higher risk, especially near major resistance. Best technical approach: wait for either a confirmed breakout above EGP 100 / USD 1.90, or a healthy pullback toward support before entering.