Electrification Is Booming. But the Path Ahead Is Complicated

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A power transmission line in Ohio in December —Brian Kaiser/Bloomberg—Getty ImagesFor the last several years, the Indian conglomerate Mahindra Group has been transitioning kitchens at its resorts away from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) toward electrified cooking. It was a long-term plan to be executed over years. What was originally an environmental sustainability play now looks like an extremely wise business continuity move. As I learned during a conversation in Singapore with the group’s head of sustainability, as parts of Asia struggle to source LPG, the company’s electrified kitchens are going strong, and it is accelerating plans to electrify the remaining gas-powered kitchens. I was thinking about that story when I read the IEA’s world energy investment report this week. One of its findings was that those countries that prioritized transitioning to clean energy alongside electrification and efficiency saved some $260 billion in fossil fuel import costs last year, with savings expected to grow substantially this year. And a billion dollars is now invested in solar power every day. While clean power receives much of the attention, the electrification story is increasingly important. Among my biggest takeaways from the report was the growing support for electrification: 15% year-over-year investment growth in technologies like heat pumps, electric vehicles, and the electrification of industrial processes. The business case for electrification has been clear for some time. In general, electrification cuts energy costs, removes the volatility of fuel prices, and builds more resilient operations. It helps address climate change—and meet regulatory demands for lower emissions. The energy crisis has only amplified that business case as fuel prices lurch. In some markets, some fuel products are not just expensive but hard to find.But headwinds remain despite the clear business case at a household-by-household, firm-by-firm level. The IEA report cites “persistent bottlenecks” created by “misalignments between demand growth, financing structures, and risk allocation.” None of these are fatal flaws. The electrification train has clearly left the station. But support from policymakers and financial innovation are required for electrification to reach its full potential on the shortest possible time horizon.  At the core of the challenge for electrification is the simple reality that doing things differently comes with up front costs. And the benefits of electrification face off against the present affordability crunch. Large companies like Mahindra can pay for improvements up front or have access to lower-cost credit that make the numbers add up. But many firms—particularly smaller ones—remain contained by limited balance sheets. Persistent high interest rates also present a challenge since electrification benefits play out over time and high interest rates can spook companies concerned about short-term returns (or even survival). A report last year from Economist Impact found that 84% of businesses are piloting electrification; only 9% are fully electrified.   Households face their own version of this calculation. They need confidence that home improvements will pay off over time and that electric vehicle infrastructure will develop enough to support their continued use. The IEA notes that even basic consumer confidence shapes whether they feel comfortable investing in electrification.  Nonetheless many trends are encouraging for electrification. Electric vehicles accounted for a quarter of sales globally last year. The IEA projects continued growth and notes particularly fast acceleration in parts of Asia. “We’re going to have a blowout year for electric vehicle sales this year globally,” says Jigar Shah, the clean tech investor who previously ran the U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office. And the opportunity—and even necessity—for refinancing corporate debt is another tailwind, according to the IEA. Around $3 trillion in commercial property debt matures between 2025 and 2027, and operational efficiency helps companies secure new loans. Indeed, a report from the We Mean Business Coalition earlier this year found that investors are increasingly factoring “electrification readiness” into their decisions. In the end, financial markets may end up being a significant driver of electrification as much as operational performance. In any event, the direction of travel remains clear, even if the path remains complicated.To get this story in your inbox, sign up to TIME's Future Proof newsletter here.