(Oil Price) – Global oil inventories are fast approaching a critical point, with Asia the first facing “minimum operational levels” and Europe close behind. This is the latest in a growing series of warnings from industry experts about the state of oil supply and the prospects of a severe shortage. It seems the world is running out of time to avert a much bigger crisis than we already have.Asia is already struggling with supply, Jeff Currie, Senior Advisor at the Carlyle Group, told CNBC this week. Speaking on the sidelines of an industry event in Singapore, the energy market vet said, “We’ve seen explosive prices on products. Jet fuel has come down, but diesel has now gone up above jet fuel. So, the problem here in Singapore continues. It just moved from jet to diesel.”The problem is not isolated to Singapore, either, with total Asian oil stocks already on the brink of minimum operational level, Currie also said, and other parts of the world set to reach those levels by July. In that, Currie took a more pessimistic—or possibly realistic—stance on the state of inventories than his former colleagues from Goldman Sachs, who earlier this month said they did not expect global inventories of crude oil to reach minimum operational levels this summer, although they acknowledged that the situation with supply is challenging.Global oil inventories were “unlikely to hit minimum operational levels this summer, the speed of depletion and supply losses in some regions and products is concerning,” Goldman commodity analysts said in a note, adding that inventories were nearing their lowest level in eight years. Interestingly, later this month, Goldman’s analysts issued a fresh warning as they reported that April draws from inventories had run at double the rate until the end of March.Since the start of May, global draws from inventories have been running at 8.7 million barrels daily, which is the highest ever, the investment bank’s analysts said last week. “Physical markets continue to tighten, as estimated oil exports through the strait remain at a very low 5% of normal,” they said.Summer is shaping up to be much hotter than usual in energy markets, with the International Energy Agency’s head recently warning oil was about to reach the “red zone” in July or August. Last week, Fatih Birol warned that rapidly falling inventories, missing Middle Eastern exports, and rising summer demand could push global oil markets into dangerous territory by July or August. “This may be difficult and we may be entering the red zone in July-August if we don’t see some improvements,” Birol said.According to Carlyle’s Currie, Europe has less than that before it meets the oil shortage head-on. It may be painful, because “All of the inventories that are drawing out of the United States out of the U.S. SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] are being exported into Europe, so the Europeans think they have no problem because they’re getting all of this oil being imported from the United States, but that can’t continue on,” the commodity expert said. What’s worse, the crunch will not spare the United States either, with shortages beginning to be felt by July, Currie also said.“I would say, Asia, you’re there. Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the U.S.,” he said, even as traders continue to focus on statements by President Trump and media reports about progress in the negotiations between Washington and Tehran instead of fundamentals.Brent crude is back below $100 today after topping the three-digit threshold on Tuesday after a round of fresh U.S. missile strikes on Iran. This prompted the latter to state the U.S. had violated the ceasefire that the two had agreed in April, further clouding hopes for a quick resolution of the conflict and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—and June is just four days away.Yet Carlyle’s Currie had an even grimmer message for the U.S. government. “Every day that goes by, Iran’s negotiating leverage compounds. Why? Because inventories of oil … continue to drop,” he said, as quoted by CNBC. “The minute you think you won, that’s exactly when you know you probably lost, and their negotiating position at this point has never been stronger in the last 47 years.”Some analysts are warning that once the full extent of the supply shortage becomes felt, prices will rise and stay high, likely for years. The reason, in addition to the immediate crunch of Middle Eastern supply, is a prolonged period of underinvestment in new supply from other parts of the world—something that OPEC+ has been warning about for at least three years now, to no avail. With estimates that it would take at least a month before Hormuz reopens, even with a peace deal in place, the prospect of an oil shortage in Europe has become all but a certainty, and the U.S. will likely see higher gas prices.By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com