Soft Australian CPI Sends AUD; EURAUD Ready To Rise

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Soft Australian CPI Sends AUD; EURAUD Ready To RiseEUR/AUDOANDA:EURAUDew-forecastAUD CPI came at 4.2%, down from 4.6% previously and below 4.4% expectations, which should keep the RBA on hold for now, especially if we consider that the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped last week. In fact, the RBA already hiked rates three times this year, so it surely looks like an appropriate time to slow down further tightening, and this is something that can keep AUD capped below resistance. For that reason, it’s worth watching EURAUD for more upside, especially after ECB members recently hinted that there is still plenty of room for a June rate hike, with some even suggesting that this could still happen even if a US Iran deal is reached. But AUD is not dropping only against EUR. It’s now finally turning lower against NZD as well after the RBNZ kept rates unchanged at 2.25%, but delivered a much more hawkish tone than earlier this year. They want to see more data, but inflation concerns are now taking priority over weak growth, so rate cuts are likely off the table for now. Looking at the EURAUD wave count, we can see a nice five wave rise followed by a three wave pullback, and now another rally that is trying to break above the channel resistance. This looks like a bullish formation for a third leg higher, meaning we could see a move beyond the previous wave A or wave one high while the mid May low remains untouched. Trade well.