Macro bottom is in. It is going to move higher Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTEbonyFalconI believe Bitcoin has already established its macro bottom. While price has been consolidating for an extended period, the structure suggests a likely breakout to the upside with limited downside from current levels. One important observation from this cycle is how differently BTC behaved around the previous cycle’s all-time high. In the last cycle, Bitcoin moved from the bottom to the November 2021 ATH relatively quickly, but then spent nearly eight months consolidating around that prior ATH range without being able to break decisively higher. (blue box in monthly chart) What makes this cycle unique is where that consolidation occurred. In earlier cycles, BTC typically consolidated around the previous cycle ATH AFTER reaching the cycle peak (pink box in monthly chart)— essentially on the way down. But in this past cycle, consolidation around the previous ATH happened before the next major expansion phase, while price was still progressing toward the eventual peak. To me, this suggests that the market has already gone through a prolonged accumulation phase within the previous ATH range. That accumulation now appears largely complete, and Bitcoin looks structurally prepared for the next move higher. Now looking at the weekly chart, BTC has already tested and decisively reclaimed the 200-week EMA — a level that has historically acted as a key long-term trend indicator throughout previous market cycles. The fact that price has managed to move above this level and hold it during consolidation further strengthens the argument that the macro bottom is already in place. Instead of showing signs of weakness, Bitcoin continues to build a higher base above a historically important support/resistance zone. From a structural perspective, this looks less like a distribution phase and more like preparation for the next leg higher. Momentum indicators are also showing an interesting setup. The weekly MACD remains in bearish territory, but it is clearly turning upward and showing improving momentum. At the same time, the weekly Stochastic has already reached overbought territory and is beginning to move lower. In my view, the Stochastic is a much faster and more reactive indicator, while the MACD reflects the broader underlying trend. When the higher timeframe MACD is still pointing upward, but the Stochastic is temporarily correcting lower, I tend to interpret the current weakness as a corrective move rather than the beginning of a larger bearish trend. As long as the weekly MACD continues to strengthen, short-term pullbacks shown by the Stochastic are likely part of a broader bullish structure rather than a major trend reversal. Now shifting to the daily chart, the two black horizontal lines represent the major support and resistance range that BTC is currently trading within. Although Bitcoin has continued to struggle around the daily 200 EMA, the internal structure within this range is gradually improving. Price action is beginning to form higher highs and higher lows, which suggests that buyers are slowly gaining control despite the market still being range-bound overall. This type of price action often reflects accumulation rather than weakness. Even while BTC remains capped below a major moving average resistance, the underlying structure is becoming increasingly constructive. If Bitcoin can eventually reclaim and hold above the daily 200 EMA, the current higher high and higher low formation (red horizontal lines) could become the foundation for a much larger breakout move. From a Fibonacci perspective, the 0.786 level often acts as the final line of defence during corrective phases. I am watching closely to see whether BTC can recover from that area — although ideally, I would prefer to see the price recovers before it reaches that level. For me, the key level to watch on the upside is the Fib 0.382 retracement, which sits around the $76,000 region. If Bitcoin can recover, break above that level, and maintain acceptance above it for several daily closes, I think there is a strong probability that bullish momentum will begin to resume. At that point, the current consolidation structure may start to transition into a continuation pattern rather than a deeper correction.