SpaceX is going public. Watch Tesla.Tesla, Inc.BATS:TSLASkillingOn May 20, SpaceX filed its S-1 prospectus with the SEC, officially confirming what markets had been anticipating for months. The world's most valuable private company is going public. The roadshow opens June 8, pricing is set for June 11, and trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX begins June 12. The targeted valuation sits between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, and the deal is expected to raise up to $75 billion — more than double the previous record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. SPCX does not yet have a chart. But Tesla does. And right now, Tesla may be the most useful lens through which to read what markets are thinking about the SpaceX listing. The relationship between the two companies is not straightforward, but it is well established. Both are led by Elon Musk. Both compete for the same pool of growth-oriented capital. Historically, major SpaceX milestones have tended to coincide with periods of underperformance in Tesla shares, as attention and capital rotate between the two. The April 1 confidential filing, the May 20 S-1 release — Tesla declined around both. The average return across major SpaceX IPO-related announcements has been negative for TSLA. Whether the June 12 listing follows the same pattern is one of the most interesting questions in markets right now. What SpaceX actually is SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches rockets and spacecraft. Its Falcon 9 rocket has become the workhorse of the commercial launch industry. Its Starlink satellite internet service serves millions of customers globally and is the primary revenue driver. Revenue for 2025 came in at $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion, largely driven by Starship research and development costs. Year on year revenue growth was 16%, while expenses grew 64% reflecting the scale of investment being made in next-generation programmes. At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would list as the third largest company in the world by market cap, behind only Apple and Nvidia. At roughly 110 times trailing revenue, it is one of the most contested valuations on Wall Street. Bulls point to Starlink's recurring revenue and Starship's transformational potential. Sceptics point to the net losses, the expense growth, and the fact that Elon Musk retains 85% of voting power. What the Tesla chart shows Tesla has recovered strongly from its March lows alongside the broader market. The stock is currently trading above its 200-day moving average, which had been acting as resistance for much of the first quarter. That is a constructive technical picture, but the June 12 date introduces a specific, event-driven risk that the chart alone cannot price. The 200-day moving average sits below current price and has historically acted as a reference point during pullbacks. The recent highs represent a level where price has previously stalled. How Tesla behaves around these levels in the weeks leading up to the June 12 listing may offer insight into broader market sentiment, though past patterns are not a reliable guide to future price movements. Two scenarios around June 12 Market participants may closely monitor Tesla shares around SPCX’s expected listing date. If investor demand for SPCX is strong, some short-term capital flows could shift toward the new listing. Conversely, weaker-than-expected demand for SPCX could influence sentiment across related equities, including Tesla. However, market reactions remain uncertain and may be influenced by broader market conditions and investor sentiment. Three weeks remain before June 12. The chart levels are clear. The catalyst is known. What happens between now and then will be worth watching closely. This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendation to trade.70% of retail CFD accounts lose money. You should only invest money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results