DXY Is Trapped Below Major ResistanceUS Dollar Index® FuturesICEUS_DLY:DX1!EdgeTradingJourneyThe US Dollar Index is currently sitting at one of the most important decision zones of the entire year. After reacting aggressively from the weekly demand area between 94.50 and 97.20, price managed to recover short-term momentum, but structurally the market still looks vulnerable. From a technical perspective, DXY continues to respect the descending trendline coming from the April highs. The recent rebound appears corrective rather than impulsive, and price is now approaching a key daily imbalance/FVG area around 98.50–98.90. This zone will likely determine the next macro move. As long as the dollar remains below this resistance cluster, I continue to favor a bearish continuation scenario targeting 97.20 first, followed by a possible revisit of the 95.50 weekly demand area. The COT data still supports this cautious outlook. Non-commercial traders remain slightly net short on the dollar: Long positions: 21,403 Short positions: 21,882 At the same time, Open Interest increased significantly (+8,518), signaling fresh positioning and growing participation. This usually precedes expansion in volatility, meaning the market could soon deliver a stronger directional move. Seasonality adds another layer to the analysis. Historically, May tends to be moderately positive for DXY on a 10Y and 15Y basis, but shorter-term seasonal flows (2Y) remain clearly bearish. Even more important, the broader yearly seasonal tendency points toward weakness during the summer months, especially from June into August. My focus now is entirely on how price reacts inside the current daily imbalance: Rejection from this area would confirm bearish continuation. A clean weekly reclaim above 99.50 would invalidate the bearish structure and open the path toward 100.50 and potentially 101.70.