BTC: Range regime day 1 — Bull resolved, $75.2K below the 20 SMABitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDRegimeRiskRegime State The three-session Bull label has ended. The RegimeRisk indicator has shifted to Range on day 1, with a negative score — the divergence between the Bull label and the 85–92% Range probability reading flagged across the last two Ideas has now resolved in the direction the probability model was pointing. The sequence since May 18 is now clear on the chart: Bear one bar, Bull three bars, Range from today. None of those labels carried conviction — the probability model was reading Range throughout, and the indicator has finally caught up. The Setup Price is at $75,227, having opened at $75,475 and printed a session high of $75,609 — the entire session contained below $76K. The 20-period SMA is currently at $79,092 and price is trading $3,800 below it, the largest deviation from that average seen on the current chart. The SMA itself has just rolled over from its upward slope, which is a structural shift — for the duration of the 26-bar Bull regime the SMA was rising and price was trading above it. That relationship has now broken. The chart shows the full regime sequence visually: Range background (grey) in April, Bull background (green) from April 22 through May 14, Bear/Bull whipsaw in the pink zone, and now Range (yellow) as the current classification. The $76K level — where the April 22 Bull regime began and where the May 18 Bear label appeared — has now been broken to the downside on a closing basis. What Would Change the Read A reclaim of $76K and a close back above the SMA ($79K, declining) would be required to re-engage any Bull thesis — that's now a $4K+ move from current price against a declining average, which is a high bar. A close below $74K would bring Bear regime conditions back into view and open the $72K–$73K zone as the next structural reference. Within a Range regime the operative question is where the range boundaries establish — the upper boundary is likely the $77.5K–$78K zone where price spent the last four sessions before today's breakdown, and the lower boundary is undefined until price finds acceptance. Continuity Previous Idea (May 22) called the Bull label low-conviction at a 0.5 score with 85% Range probability, and flagged that the model resolving toward Bull alignment was the leading indicator to watch. It didn't resolve toward Bull — it resolved to Range at 92%. Three sessions of divergence, now confirmed. The probability model was right throughout.