PCE, GDP & MONTH-END CLOSE — GOLD FACES A MAJOR MACRO TESTGoldOANDA:XAUUSDLucasGrayTradingThe upcoming trading week arrives during one of the most important macro periods of the month as markets prepare for major U.S. economic releases, particularly Core PCE and GDP data — both of which could heavily influence Fed rate expectations and broader defensive capital flows. At the same time, this will also be the final trading week of May, increasing the probability of strong volatility driven by institutional repositioning, month-end portfolio adjustments, and liquidity rotation across global markets. Market focus is gradually shifting from pure inflation concerns toward slowing economic momentum and recession risks caused by prolonged high interest rates. However, despite growing macro uncertainty, gold is still showing relatively weak recovery behavior on the higher timeframe. Although short-term rebounds continue appearing during periods of USD weakness and safe-haven demand, price repeatedly faces aggressive selling pressure around upper demand zones. This suggests that broader institutional distribution pressure still remains active inside the current structure. Technically, gold continues trading below the major descending trendline on the Daily timeframe and has not yet reclaimed higher liquidity zones. Current bullish movements still appear more like technical recoveries rather than confirmation of a new long-term bullish cycle. The 458x-462x region remains the key resistance area where demand, fibo levels, and descending trendline liquidity continue to converge. Meanwhile, the 438x-432x zone becomes the next major support region if bearish pressure expands further after next week’s economic data releases. MAIN SCENARIO If Core PCE and GDP data continue supporting expectations of prolonged restrictive Fed policy, gold could remain under selling pressure and extend the bearish move toward lower support zones around 438x-432x. As long as price remains below the major descending trendline, the broader structure still favors bearish continuation. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO If economic data comes in weaker than expected and recession concerns intensify while USD weakens sharply, gold could reclaim the 458x-462x resistance zone and extend the recovery toward higher liquidity areas before the market establishes its next broader directional move. Short-term bias: Recovery attempts inside bearish structure. Long-term bias: Still bearish while gold remains below major descending trendline resistance and upper liquidity zones. LucasGrayTrading