EUR/USD Weekly - bullish EMA stack above 200-EMA at 1.16Euro vs US DollarPEPPERSTONE:EURUSDGovindSatoshiEUR/USD weekly has held a clean bullish EMA stack since reclaiming the 200-EMA earlier in 2025. Current spot 1.1643, EMA 50 at 1.157, EMA 100 at 1.138, EMA 200 at 1.122. Price above all three; alignment 50 > 100 > 200. First sustained weekly hold above the 200-EMA since late 2021. The 12-month range that matters: 1.1281 floor (29 May 2025 ECB reference low) to 1.1820 ceiling (28 Aug 2025 ECB reference high). Current 1.1643 sits in the upper-third of that range, around the 73rd percentile, after a controlled pullback from the August 2025 high. The macro backdrop driving the structure: 1. DXY collapsed from 109 in Jan-Feb 2025 (post-election USD strength peak) to mid-96s in September 2025, before stabilising at 99.0-99.3 over the last few weeks. The 17-year DXY trendline extending from the 2008 lows is still supportive on the longer view. A short-term DXY bounce back toward 100-102 is the most plausible counter-trend move but the structural read is post-peak USD. 2. ECB has held at 2.00% terminal since the last cut. Multiple desks (ING, others) have the ECB finished cutting with the next move higher. Fed remains in an easing cycle with cuts likely through 2026. The two-year EUR-USD real yield differential has been pushing higher across the last several weeks (Forex.com 22 May 2026), which is the underlying driver of euro strength. 3. Wells Fargo's 2026 path: Q1 1.18, Q2 1.19, Q3 1.18, Q4 1.17. ING expects further USD weakness with a 1.24 end-2026 target on the bear-USD scenario. The forecast distribution clusters around 1.17-1.20 for the next 12 months, which aligns with what the weekly chart structure is pricing now. Three scenarios on the weekly: Bullish case (60% personal weighting): weekly close above 1.1750 opens a retest of the 1.1820 August 2025 high. Sustained break above 1.1820 targets 1.2050 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2022 macro selloff from 1.6038 to 0.9536). Catalyst pair: ECB hawkish-hold rhetoric plus continued Fed cut delivery through Q3 2026. Bearish case (35%): weekly close below 1.1380 (the EMA 100) opens a retest of the 1.1281 May 2025 swing low. Sustained close below 1.1220 (the EMA 200) invalidates the recovery thesis and opens the 1.1000 round-number support. Catalyst: Fed hawkish-hold combined with eurozone Q2 PMI softening below 50. Tail risk (5%): rangebound between 1.1281 and 1.1820 for another 8-16 weeks as Bollinger Bandwidth compresses, before resolving directionally in late 2026 H2. For Australian traders specifically the second-order layer to model is the AUD/EUR cross. AUD/USD currently in the 0.65-0.67 band; AUD/EUR sits around 0.5750. A bullish EUR/USD breakout with AUD/USD holding range translates to AUD/EUR drifting toward 0.5500 within 8-12 weeks. Position sizing on EUR/USD from an AUD-base account needs to account for the cross-leg conversion exposure - the all-in pip value in AUD differs from the USD-account pip value by the AUDUSD daily spot rate (currently around 0.6550). Pepperstone Razor account on EUR/USD shows raw spread 0.0 pips with AUD 3.50/side commission on AUD-base accounts, which is the cheapest all-in cost of any ASIC-AFSL broker I've tested on this pair. Position-classifier framing: the structure is bullish until the EMA 200 retest fails. I would not be short EUR/USD on the weekly above 1.1220.