EUR/USD Is About To Trap Everyone Before The Real MoveEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEdgeTradingJourneyEUR/USD is currently sitting at a very interesting technical and macroeconomic point. After the strong bullish expansion seen during the previous weeks, price is now struggling beneath a major descending trendline while compressing inside a tightening structure. Technically, EUR/USD rejected the higher timeframe supply zone between 1.1750 and 1.1900, exactly where I expected sellers to become active again. Since that rejection, the pair has started printing lower highs beneath the descending resistance trendline, showing a clear loss of bullish momentum in the short term. At the same time, price is still holding above the ascending support trendline coming from the April lows. This creates a compression structure that usually precedes a volatility expansion. Looking at the Commitment of Traders data, institutional positioning still remains structurally bullish on the euro: Non-commercial traders increased EUR longs again USD Index positioning remains relatively weak The broader macro structure still favors euro strength over the medium term However, there is an important divergence developing. Despite aggressive euro positioning from institutions, price is no longer accelerating higher. This often becomes an early warning sign that the market may first need a deeper retracement before continuation. Retail sentiment adds another important layer to the analysis. Currently, around 71% of retail traders are long EUR/USD. From a contrarian perspective, this becomes fuel for potential downside liquidity grabs. Seasonality also supports the idea of short-term weakness. Historically, late May and early June tend to show softer EUR/USD performance before stronger bullish flows appear later during the summer months. Because of this, my current expectation is: Short-term bearish retracement Sweep toward the 1.1540–1.1500 demand zone Potential re-accumulation phase afterward Medium-term continuation higher later in Q3