Repsol falls on easing Middle East tensionsRepsol SABME_DLY:REPActivTradesRepsol falls as the market prices in an easing of tensions in the Middle East By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Repsol shares recorded a decline of around 2.8% this Wednesday, clearly diverging from the positive tone of the IBEX 35, in a session marked by market optimism over a possible diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran. The Spanish oil company was pressured by a common movement within the energy sector: any expectation of geopolitical easing in the Middle East usually translates into downward pressure on oil prices, thus reducing expectations of extraordinary revenues for companies linked to exploration, production and refining. The market is beginning to price in a scenario in which the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz gradually decreases. This strategic enclave channels approximately 20% of global crude oil trade, meaning that any improvement in relations between Washington and Tehran automatically reduces the geopolitical premium embedded in Brent prices. In this context, Brent crude retreated toward the $97 area, moving away from the recent highs reached during the weeks of heightened regional tensions. Reuters highlighted that investors were reacting to growing expectations of progress in talks between both powers, triggering selling pressure across the European oil sector. Fundamentals: solid results, but sensitive to crude oil prices From a fundamental perspective, Repsol continues to show a solid financial structure and strong cash generation capacity, although the market is aware that a large part of its recent results has been supported by an extraordinarily favorable energy environment. The company posted adjusted net profit close to 873 million euros during the first quarter of 2026, mainly driven by the strong performance of its industrial business and still elevated refining margins. In addition, the company maintains controlled net debt and an attractive shareholder remuneration policy through dividends and share buybacks. However, the main risk for the stock price remains the evolution of oil prices. If Brent continues correcting and the market begins to anticipate lasting geopolitical stabilization, refining margins could compress significantly over the coming quarters, directly affecting one of the segments that has contributed the most to the company’s recent results. Technical analysis: key support at the 100-session moving average From a technical perspective, Repsol maintains a still constructive medium-term structure, although the short term shows clear signs of exhaustion after the latest corrections. The price continues to hold above the previous consolidation range located between 19.45 and 21.30 euros. However, following the exhaustion of the latest upward impulse that led to the highs recorded on May 19 at 23.53 euros, the stock has developed a corrective phase that has pushed the share price toward the current area around 21.88 euros. Bearish pressure has pushed the stock below the 50-session moving average, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum in the short term. Even so, the 100-session moving average continues to act as dynamic support, preventing for now a deeper correction and maintaining the medium-term bullish structure intact. Should the stock lose the 21.30 euro area, the market could begin pricing in a broader corrective movement toward lower levels. Conversely, a recovery above 23.53 euros would improve the technical bias once again and shift the focus back toward the recent highs of March 19, when the stock reached 24.90 euros per share. The evolution of Brent crude will remain the main catalyst for Repsol in the coming sessions, especially if the market continues adjusting positions in anticipation of a scenario of lower geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.