ETH/USD Weekly - cycle top in, mid-drawdown, no rotationEthereum / US DollarCOINBASE:ETHUSDGovindSatoshiCompanion to my BTC weekly cycle framing. ETH cycle dynamics are different enough to deserve their own analysis. Cycle position: ETH printed its cycle top around late 2025 near USD 4,800, almost exactly the same nominal level as the 2021 cycle peak (USD 4,891). The interesting wrinkle: ETH did not get its expected "altcoin rotation" phase during the late-2025 BTC cycle peak. BTC dominance stayed elevated throughout because the spot ETF demand layer absorbed institutional flow that historically rotated into ETH. Today: ETH at USD 2,124, roughly 56 percent off the late-2025 ATH (deeper than BTC's 40 percent drawdown). Price is below both the EMA 50 weekly (2,701) and EMA 100 weekly (2,762). Pi Cycle Top fired during the late-2025 peak as the 111-day MA × 2 (orange line, 4,167) crossed above the 350-day MA × 2 (green line, 2,933). ETH/BTC ratio context (the rotation-tier anchor): - 2021 cycle peak: ETH/BTC ~ 0.082 - 2022 bear bottom: ETH/BTC ~ 0.045 - 2024 mid-cycle: ETH/BTC ~ 0.045-0.055 - Today: ETH/BTC ~ 0.028 ETH/BTC is at multi-year lows, below even the 2022 bear-market bottom. This is the data telling you the late-cycle alt rotation that drove the 2017 and 2021 ETH parabolas never materialized this cycle. Historical ETH drawdown anchors: - 2018-2019 bear: ETH USD 1,432 to USD 83, -94 percent - 2022 bear: ETH USD 4,891 to USD 880, -82 percent - Current cycle: -56 percent so far. Either early in the bear (more downside toward USD 1,500 zone) OR a structurally shallower cycle. ETH-specific multi-tier framework: - Cycle-timing tier: post-Merge 3.5+ years; staking economics now the dominant supply dynamic - Valuation tier: price below long-term EMA cluster, Mayer-style ratio below 1.0 - Sentiment tier: cross-references broad crypto risk sentiment - Rotation tier: ETH/BTC at multi-year lows, BTC dominance elevated. Pre-rotation rebuild, not late-cycle rotation - Validator/staking tier: queue length, staking ratio (data dependent) Watch list for the ETH cycle bottom signal: - ETH price toward USD 1,500-1,800 zone (a -65 percent drawdown matching historical cycle bottoms) - ETH/BTC reclaiming above 0.045 with confirmation (a sign rotation is restarting) - Validator unstaking queue elevated, ETH-denominated yield stabilizing ASIC 30:1 leverage cap applies for Australian retail traders on crypto CFD positions. Educational analysis only. Not financial advice. - Govind (ex-institutional trader)