Agios Fanourios I, a supertanker linked to Geneva-based trader Lytton SA that was transporting Iraqi crude to Vietnam, proved earlier this month that despite the biggest supply disruption in oil market history, there are workarounds that can be managed. The vessel, holding around 2 million barrels of crude, was stopped first by Iranian and then the US authorities, and then went on to pass the American naval blockade around a week ago after an intervention from Vietnam’s state oil company PetroVietnam Oil Corporation, Bloomberg reported citing satellite data and trade data.Third-party cargoes are now starting to make it through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which around 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, with some 10 transits reported officially over the last 24 hours, according to a trade source. While this is still a small number given the number of vessels stuck on both sides of the Strait on account of the dual Iranian and American blockades, this figure is encouragingly higher than what it was any given day in late April or early May, a shipping sector source told The Indian Express.The person indicated that this could be in response to demands from specific countries, such as Vietnam in the case of the Agios Fanourios I, and comes in the wake of Trump’s recent China visit, where Beijing seems to have indicated a hands-off approach on resolving the deadlock over the Strait while managing to unambiguously convey its point of view on the Americans needing to keep off Taiwan.So, where this war is headedThe latest deal under discussion by the US and Iran reportedly entails a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an extended plan for taking forward the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. In a social media post Sunday, Trump said “constructive” talks were moving ahead but “both sides must take their time and get it right”. Earlier on Saturday, the US President had said an agreement had been “largely negotiated”, prompting speculation an announcement could be imminent. Iranian officials also offered similar signals over the weekend, with foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei saying the two sides are both “very close and very far” from reaching an agreement, without refusing to put a timeline on it.According to an independent strategic expert, this deal is tantamount to kicking the can down the road, at least till the upcoming American mid term elections. “In all probability, the 60-day ceasefire will be subject to perhaps two more extensions till November. Trump will likely buy time till the mid-terms and till then, passage of ships through the Strait would be allowed on a negotiated basis, with the Iranians continuing to charge a toll till their demand for some sort of sanctions relief is agreed to, including the unfreezing of assets. For Tehran, its key demand remains the waiver of sanctions in return for keeping the Strait of Hormuz partly open.”“This impasse, however transitory, suits most players. The possibility of an escalation of any kind is a looming worry. Given how things are stacked up, the US will hardsell the point to its domestic audience that its negotiators are working towards an eventual deal better than the JCPOA (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the earlier Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Obama), and that the Iranians have been hammered sufficiently, a Sunni government has been installed in Syria, while Hamas has been decimated and Hezbollah weakened substantially.The fact that the Iranian regime continues to be in the saddle and the enriched uranium is still in their control are clear failures. For the Iranians, the positives include having shown the US and its allies their place. Also demonstrating Tehran’s control of the Strait and its ability to weaponise it going forward are positives, and that the regime, despite being under fire, is in negotiation to get the decades-long sanctions removed. The clerics are even more in control of Tehran than when this war started, and this looks to be the case into the foreseeable future. That seems to be the best case scenario for Iran, given the circumstances.”Story continues below this adIranian foreign ministry spokesman Baghaei had described a “memorandum of understanding” that is in the works, telling state television Saturday that Iran’s intention was to reach a pact “in the form of a framework, consisting of 14 points”.Baghaei said Tehran was in the process of finalising the memorandum, so further talks could be held within 30 to 60 days “and ultimately a final agreement can be reached”. On Monday, visiting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Delhi there was a “pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait” and “enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter.” On the nuclear issue, there is a likelihood that some sort of a broad agreement could be on the table, with specifics and details pushed to the backburner.Other issuesComplicating matters somewhat is that Israel has said it will escalate strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, claiming the militia had ignored warnings to halt firing. A renewed escalation of this conflict could potentially be a spanner-in-the-works for US-Iran negotiations.Another stumbling block could be Trump’s renewed call for countries in the region to join the Abraham Accords – US-brokered agreements from his first term aimed at getting Arab nations to normalise relations with Israel. In a long statement posted on Truth Social, Trump said that any agreement to end the Iran war should include a requirement for several additional countries, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to join the Abraham Accords. Trump said he expects that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan would sign up.Story continues below this ad“This, in my view, is a non-starter. It only complicates the situation, especially after the Iran war and howmany in the region view Israel. There are protests already emanating from Pakistan, which till now has completely played along,” the source indicated.The problem for Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is that he has consistently sold this war to his domestic audience as offering the possiblity of ensuring regime change in Iran. Far from that, the Iranian regime is in place, and is way more hardline now and also confident in that it has taken whatever America and Israel could throw at it, and survived. More importantly, it now has a weapon that it did not ever leverage in all of its existence — the power to close the Strait of Hormuz.