DAVID E. SANGER, TYLER PAGER2026年5月25日自冲突爆发以来，霍尔木兹海峡一直是焦点所在。 ReutersThe temporary agreement that the Trump administration announced with Iran this weekend isn’t a peace deal. It isn’t a nuclear deal. It isn’t a missile deal.特朗普政府本周末宣布与伊朗达成的临时协议并非和平协议。它也不是核协议，更不是导弹协议。Those may yet come — perhaps in a few months, though a senior United States official said there was no agreed time limit for nuclear talks, or perhaps far longer if the history of negotiations with Iran holds. But for now, Mr. Trump has emerged with an arrangement that could extend a cease-fire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, relieving the greatest energy disruption in modern times.这些协议或许终将到来——也许是数月之内，尽管一位美国高级官员表示核谈判并无商定的时间期限；如果参考美伊历史上的谈判经验，甚至可能需要更长时间。但就目前而言，特朗普得到的是一项有望延长停火并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的安排，从而缓解现代史上最严重的能源危机。The best news from this at-the-brink negotiation between Washington and Tehran, mediated by a hard-line Pakistani general who a few years ago was on an American sanctions list, is that a conflict that easily could have spun further out of control appears to be de-escalating. Assuming both President Trump and Iran’s supreme leader, in hiding to avoid assassination attempts, approve the final wording, the choke point through which a quarter of the world’s oil passes should reopen.华盛顿与德黑兰之间这场处于危局边缘的谈判由一位巴基斯坦强硬派将军居中斡旋，几年前此人还在美国制裁名单上。最好的消息是，一场本可能彻底失控的冲突似乎正在降级。假设特朗普总统和因躲避暗杀而藏起来的伊朗最高领袖都批准了最终文本，那么全球四分之一石油运输所经的咽喉要道有望重新开放。That is no small thing at a time when Republicans feared they would be headed into the November midterm elections with gasoline hovering around $4.50 a gallon and a president pursuing a war most Americans tell pollsters they oppose. For the Iranians, the opening comes just as their battered economy appeared about to crack, from the loss of most of their oil revenue.共和党人原本担心，在11月中期选举来临前美国汽油价格可能飙升至每加仑4.5美元，而总统却在推进一场大多数美国民调受访者都反对的战争，此时达成协议非同小可。对伊朗而言，海峡重开也来得正是时候——饱受创伤的伊朗经济因大部分石油收入蒸发已濒临崩溃。But for a president who had declared only 11 weeks ago that “there will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” the agreement he announced this weekend was far short of that. And his tone was markedly different.但对于仅仅11周前还宣称“除了无条件投降之外，不会与伊朗达成任何协议”的特朗普来说，这个周末宣布的协议显然远没有达到那个目标。而且，他的语气也明显不同了。“The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side,” he wrote on social media.特朗普在社交媒体上写道：“谈判正以有序且建设性的方式推进。我已通知我的代表们不要急于达成协议，因为时间在我们这边。”Until the supreme leader and other Iranian officials certify the understanding “the Blockade will remain in full force and effect,” he wrote.他还表示，在伊朗最高领袖和其他官员正式确认这项共识之前：“封锁将继续全面有效。”He added: “There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one.”随后又补充说：“不能出任何差错！我们与伊朗的关系正变得更加专业且富有成效。”Yet Mr. Trump essentially gave into the Iranian demand to kick the hardest issues down the road — while apparently succeeding in forcing the Iranians to end, at least temporarily, their stranglehold on of the world’s most vital waterways.但实质上，特朗普是屈从于伊朗的要求将最棘手的问题推后处理，尽管他似乎成功迫使伊朗至少暂时结束了对这条世界最重要水道的扼制。In the end, each side had little choice but to give ground. They chose the least-bad of what each saw as bad options. But all that does is begin to restore the status quo to roughly where it was on Feb. 28, when Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel launched a war to finally bring Iran’s nuclear and missile programs to an end.最终，双方几乎别无选择，只能让步。他们都选择了各自眼中最不坏的选项。但这一切不过是让局面大致回到2月28日的状态——那天特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发动了一场旨在彻底终结伊朗核计划与导弹计划的战争。So far, they have failed to achieve those goals: Iran is still in possession of more than 11 tons of nuclear fuel, including 970 pounds that is close to bomb grade — though it is buried under rubble, deep underground. An early plan to essentially stage a coup, overthrowing the government, placing a former Iranian hard-line president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, into power, never materialized.到目前为止，他们并未实现这些目标。伊朗依然拥有超过11吨核燃料，其中约440公斤的浓缩铀丰度接近武器级——尽管它们如今被埋在地下深处的废墟之下。而一个早期设想——说白了就是发动政变推翻现政府，扶植伊朗前强硬派总统艾哈迈迪-内贾德上台——也从未实现。If the strait does reopen, Mr. Trump’s aides say they are planning to enter a second phase to get back to a serious negotiation with the Iranians on the issues that triggered the war. A senior administration official, who declined to be named, told reporters on Sunday that the Iranians had already generally agreed to turn over their 60-percent enriched uranium — the stockpile that could be converted to a dozen or so bombs in relatively short order.特朗普的幕僚表示，若海峡确实重新开放，他们计划进入第二阶段，也就是与伊朗就引发这场战争的核心议题展开实质性谈判。一位不愿具名的美国政府高级官员周日向记者透露，伊朗已大体同意交出其60%浓缩铀库存——这批铀在相对较短的时间内即可转化为十余枚核弹。But the Iranians have said nothing about surrendering that fuel, which along with its power to shut off traffic in the strait is their best leverage. The U.S. official also conceded the exact mechanism by which Iran would dispose of their highly enriched uranium remains unresolved as does whether Iran, at the end of the negotiation, will ship out all of the additional uranium in its possession, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.但伊朗方面对交出这些核燃料只字未提——这些燃料连同封锁霍尔木兹海峡的能力正是它目前最大的谈判筹码。这名美国官员也承认，伊朗将如何处置其高浓缩铀的具体机制仍未确定。谈判结束后伊朗是否会将手中全部额外浓缩铀运出该国也仍无定论，国际原子能机构确认伊朗目前持有这些浓缩铀。The United States also said the Iranians had agreed, verbally, to some kind of suspension of enrichment of new nuclear fuel. But Mr. Trump himself told reporters nine days ago on Air Force One that Tehran’s leaders had backed away from a commitment to suspend that activity for 20 years, and it is unclear where they are on the issue now.美国还表示，伊朗已经口头同意暂停新的浓缩活动。但九天前，特朗普本人在“空军一号”上却告诉记者，德黑兰领导层已经放弃了此前“暂停20年浓缩活动”的承诺，目前双方在该问题上的各自立场尚不明朗。And Iran has so far refused to even discuss limits on the size and range of their missiles which the United States had said it would insist upon. That is a critical issue to the Israelis, who are within reach of many of Iran’s ballistic missiles.此外，伊朗迄今拒绝就限制其导弹规模和射程展开任何讨论，美国此前已明确表示将坚持这一要求。这对以色列而言是个关键问题，因为它处于伊朗许多弹道导弹的射程之内。Despite the confidence from the United States that all those issues would be resolved, it seemed possible that the negotiations and fragile cease-fire could collapse at any point. The U.S. official briefing reporters on Sunday repeatedly acknowledged they could not predict what Iran would ultimately agree to, or even if the supreme leader would formally sign off.尽管美国方面对最终解决这些问题表现得相当自信，但谈判与脆弱的停火随时可能破裂。周日向记者介绍情况的美国官员多次承认，他们无法预测伊朗最终会接受什么条件，甚至无法确定最高领袖是否会正式批准协议。But the official said the reopening of the strait, which would not include any Iranian tolls, would remove the economic pressure, reassure the markets and create space to address the nuclear issues. The official did not say how the United States would deal with Iran’s claim over the past three months that it now has sovereignty over the strait, which had been traversed as international waters.但这名官员表示，重新开放海峡（伊朗不会收取任何通行费）将消除经济压力、安抚市场，并为处理核问题创造空间。但该官员并未说明，美国将如何处理伊朗过去三个月来提出的主张——即伊朗如今对这个原本被视为国际水域的海峡拥有主权。But the official did say that the agreement with the Trump administration amounted to a “walk-back” by the Iranians, because they will not be charging tolls.不过他强调，与特朗普政府达成的协议实际上意味着伊朗“退让了”，因为他们将不再收取通行费。Mr. Trump only added to the doubts on Sunday afternoon, when he declared on social media that “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama,” in 2015, which curtailed Iran’s nuclear activity, but did not eliminate it.周日下午，特朗普本人又进一步加深了外界疑虑。他在社交媒体上写道：“如果我与伊朗达成协议，那将会是一份好的、合适的协议，不会像巴拉克·奥巴马2015年的那个协议那样。”奥巴马当年的协议限制了伊朗的核活动，但并未彻底消除。“Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet,” he acknowledged. “So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about.”“我们的协议与之截然相反，但没人见过，也没人知道内容。它甚至还没有完全谈成，”他坦承。 “所以别听那些失败者的话，他们对自己一无所知的事情说三道四。”Among the “losers" were prominent members of Mr. Trump’s own party. Republican Iran hawks said he had folded to pressure, and failed to finish the job. Among the harshest critics was Senator Roger Wicker, Republican of Mississippi and chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, who had warned that “everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!”这些“失败者”中不乏特朗普本党的重量级人物。共和党内的对伊强硬派指责他向压力低头，未竟全功。其中态度最严厉的当属密西西比州共和党参议员、参议院军事委员会主席罗杰·威克，他曾警告称，“史诗之怒行动取得的一切成果都可能化为乌有！”Longtime negotiators who had opposed the attacks also had their doubts.长期参与中东谈判且原本就反对此次军事打击行动的专家同样持怀疑态度。“This is what happens when a poorly conceived war of choice turns into a highly flawed ‘peace’ of necessity,” Aaron David Miller, a former Mideast negotiator, now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on Sunday.“这就是一场构思拙劣的‘选择性战争’演变成充满严重缺陷的‘被迫和平’所带来的结果，”前中东谈判代表、现任职于卡内基国际和平基金会的亚伦·戴维·米勒周日表示。“Original, unrealizable war aims abandoned,” he said, “and now little leverage to secure what really matters — restraining Iran’s nuclear capacity and permanently opened straits.”“最初那些不切实际的战争目标被抛弃，”他说，“而现在几乎没有筹码来争取真正重要的东西——限制伊朗的核能力，以及永久开放海峡。”Until a few days ago, the Trump administration was insisting it would not enter into any accord that did not deal with the hardest issue upfront: the nuclear program. But administration officials relented — in part because they needed to get the strait open and in part because they have come to recognize the complexity of negotiating on Iran’s vast nuclear complex, a task that took the Obama administration nearly two years and resulted in a 160-page agreement.就在几天前，特朗普政府还坚称，不会签署任何不先解决核计划这个最棘手问题的协议。但政府官员最终让步了——部分原因在于他们需要让海峡开放，部分原因在于他们逐渐认识到与伊朗就其庞大的核设施进行谈判的复杂性——这项任务曾耗费奥巴马政府近两年时间，最终形成一份长达160页的协议。“You can’t do a nuclear thing in 72 hours on the back of a napkin,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview in New Delhi, where he was on a diplomatic mission. “The straits have to be immediately reopened, and then we will enter, under agreed-to parameters, into very serious talks about enrichment, about the highly enriched uranium and about their pledge to never have nuclear weapons.”“你不可能在72小时内、在餐巾纸反面写写画画就搞定核问题，”正在新德里进行外事访问的国务卿鲁比奥在接受采访时说。“海峡必须立即重新开放，然后我们将在商定的框架内，就浓缩问题、高浓缩铀问题以及伊朗永不拥有核武器的承诺，展开极为严肃的谈判。”When pressed on why Mr. Trump appeared to change course this time, the U.S. official said Iran was making significant accommodations, but the toughest decisions still lay ahead.当记者追问为何特朗普这次似乎改变立场时，那名美国官员表示，伊朗已经作出了相当大的让步，但真正艰难的决定还在后面。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有四本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。Tyler Pager是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统及其政府新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site