Indices:- U.S. equity index futures jump after another strong week for risk assets as easing oil prices and hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal supported sentiment; weekly performance saw gains for the S&P 500 (w/w +0.9% to 7,473), Nasdaq 100 (w/w +0.8% to 29,481), Dow 30 (w/w +2.2% to 50,579), and Russell 2000 (w/w +2.4% to 2,869); Treasury yields fell back on the further end of the curve late last week and may see further declines once the bond market reopens, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) could fall back from (via majority) expecting a rate hike in December out of the Federal Reserve- Japan’s Nikkei 225 hits a record high breaching 65,000 on lower oil prices and improved risk sentiment from the latest geopolitical updatesStocks:- Shares of Nvidia (-1.9%) closed lower though there were plenty of players within the semiconductor sphere who finished higher including Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) (+11.6%) extending its recent rally, Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) (+2.8%) capping a near 46% weekly surge, and AMD (+4%) adding to gains after CEO Su said elevated CPU demand could persist for another five years- AI enthusiasm also boosted Dell (+16.8%) and HP (+15.3%) after strong AI-driven results from peer Lenovo (+19.8%)- Traders piled into space-related plays ahead of the anticipated SpaceX IPO: Redwire (+13.9%) and Rocket Lab (+8.2%) both up notably by the close- Shares of Reddit (-5.6%) dropped after Meta (+0.5%) launched its standalone “Forum” app aimed at online discussion communities- Movie technology company IMAX (+15.5%) jumped after reports it is exploring a potential sale- Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (-2.9%), Kohl’s (+2.8%), AMC (-3.2%), BlackBerry (+19%), Nokia (+9.1%), GameStop (-2.4%), Avis (+5.9%)- Most crypto stocks closed lower on Friday: Coinbase (-4.4%), MicroStrategy (-3%), Mara Holdings (+1.9%), Gemini Space Station (-2.5%), Bullish (-2.2%), Circle Internet Group (-1.5%)Commodities:- A gap higher for gold prices as the pullback in energy on a potential agreement sees the greenback weaken on the FX front and yields expected to fall back from recent highs should inflation and rate hike fears calm a bit, while silver outperforms to touch the $78s and takes the gold/silver ratio below 59- Oil prices (WTI) gap lower and are down about 7% briefly below $90 as traders react to President Trump’s comments that the deal is "largely negotiated" and "are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner" but "not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side" and where both sides "must take their time and get it right”; weekly rig count data out of Baker Hughes shows number of US oil rigs rising to 425 from 415 priorFX/Central Banks/Crypto:- Bitcoin enjoys a lift albeit limited getting above $77K but yet to successfully breach a short-term bear trend line with much of the price action within a recently formed bear channel, with Ether continuing to struggle in matching BTC’s performance only just reaching $2.1K and taking the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio into the 0.026 handle- US Dollar Index gaps lower and into the 98s as optimism surrounding a deal sees oil prices fall back and aid energy-exposed currencies against the greenback; USD/JPY falls back into the 158s and offers policymakers some relief as it moves away from their 160 ‘red line’- Federal Reserve’s Waller in favor of holding "rates steady for the near term" but can’t "rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon" and supports removing "easing bias" language in the central bank’s policy statement, "kind of crazy" to talk about rate cuts in the "near future"; Hasset, chief economic advisor at the White House expects oil prices to fall on a deal and will create "a lot of room for the Fed to do the right thing at lower rates"- European Central Bank’s President Lagarde that ECB inflation forecasts "will probably be revised" in their June meeting given the situation "has evolved" sinceCapital.com Client Sentiment (w/w):- Indices: Shifts to the middle in the Nasdaq 100 (from a majority buy 57% at the start of last week) as price gains result in longs unwinding and shorts initiating at the short-term resistance level, not far off shifting in the Dow 30 (slight buy 51% from a heavy long 68% last Monday) as it enjoys a record high, and a significant unwind in Russell 2000 long bias (59% from 67% a week ago) as it outperformed in percentage terms; elsewhere long buy bias also dropped notably in the DAX 40 (57% from a very heavy 74%), FTSE 100 (76% from an extreme buy 82%) and Nikkei 225 (51% from 65%)- Commodities: Still extreme buy in gold (82% from 81% a week ago) as longs refuse to close out with a hold in silver (85%), while sentiment shifted in WTI (majority buy 57% from a majority short 58% last Monday) and reached extreme buy in natural gas (79% from 70%)- FX: No longer heavy buy in GBP/USD (58% from 65% a week ago), EUR/GBP (71% from 55%) and GBP/JPY (61% from 72%) as the pound recovered some lost ground, while shifted in USD/JPY (from a slight long 52% to a majority short 55%)CoT Speculator Sentiment (w/w):- Indices: Remain net short in the S&P 500 (at 60%), Nasdaq 100 (52% from 58%), Dow (71% from 57%), and Russell (56% from 53%)- Commodities: Extreme buy but a couple notches lower in gold (80% from 82%) on a reduction in long positions and simultaneous increase in shorts, with silver only just in extreme buy (78%) and unchanged and WTI (65%) back in heavy long territory- FX: Net long but near the middle in EUR (54% from 55%), moves back to heavy buy in GBP (66% from 61%), and reaches heavy net short in the yen (65% from 64%; i.e., heavy buy USD/JPY 65%)Data:- U.S. UoM’s consumer sentiment for May revised to a fresh record low of 44.8 with expectations worsening to 44.1; inflation expectations climb for both 1Y (4.8% from 4.5%) and 5Y (3.9% from 3.4%)- Germany Q1 GDP 0.3% q/q as anticipated; GfK’s consumer climate improves modestly to -29.8 from -33.1 while Ifo business climate edges up to 84.9 with small improvements for expectations (83.8 from 83.5) and current assessment (86.1 from 85.4)- UK retail sales in April suffered contraction with a -1.3% m/m print and so too when excluding fuel -0.4%; public sector net borrowing for the same month climbs and worse than anticipatedToday:- Memorial Day, U.S. stock and bond markets are closedThis Week:- U.S. CB’s consumer confidence and housing price data tomorrow, a string of data on Thursday including PCE Price Index and GDP, and Chicago PMI on Fridayo Earnings from Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) on Wednesday, and a few retailers on Thursday- In Europe, holidays for plenty today as well, minutes from the latest ECB meeting on Thursday, and German preliminary pricing data on Friday