USD/JPY remains stuck in a tight range amid US-Iran deal optimism and hawkish Fed risk

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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar came under renewed pressure yesterday on heightened hopes fora US-Iran deal. The latest developments have certainly been more positive with Qatarimediation reportedly having produced a mutual understanding on Iran's frozenfinancial assets and Trump’s retreating on the nuclear material question. In fact, having previously insisted that Iran's enriched uranium be shippedto the United States, Trump said on Truth Social that destruction in placeunder IAEA supervision, or transfer to a third country, would be acceptable. What’s more important for traders is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.We are approaching the June FOMC meeting, and after Fed’s Waller speech on Friday,it’s now almost assured that the Fed is going to abandon the easing bias. Ifnothing changes before then, we might have a more hawkish than expected decisionwhich is going to reverberate across the markets.Therefore, in the short-term, a resolution and the reopening of the Straitwill likely weigh on the greenback on falling oil prices and increased rate cutbets. But if the Strait remains closed for longer and oil prices stay elevated,the risk of the Fed being forced to hike anyway increases.JPY:On the JPY side, nothinghas changed fundamentally but it seems like the Japanese officials have finallystopped intervening in the FX market. The macro backdrop for the yen remainsnegative. As a reminder, the BoJ leftinterest rates unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected at the last meeting butthe highlight of the decision weren’t the three dissenters voting for a ratehike, but Governor Ueda adopting a less hawkish stance. He mentioned that theyexpect underlying inflation to be around 2% from second half of 2026 butadmitted that he doesn’t know how many months it would take to gauge timing oftheir next rate hike. This is going to keep weighing on the Japanese yendespite the interventions. All in all, the bias for the Japanese Yen remainsbearish. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDJPY is still consolidating aroundthe 159.00 handle. The natural target should be the cycle high around the162.00 level. If we get a pullback into the 158.00 support zone, we can expectthe buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to keep pushinginto new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower topile in for a drop into the major upward trendline.USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the consolidation around the 159.00 handle. The buyers willlook for long opportunities around the 158.60 support or on the break above the159.30 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will need to see the pricebreaking below the 158.60 support to extend the pullback into the 158.00 levelnext.USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much we can add here as the price might just keep ranging until we get abreakout on either side. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the US ConsumerConfidence report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures andthe US PCE price index. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.