CAN GOLD BREAK THE UPPER TRENDLINE OR WILL SELL PRESSURE RETURN?GoldOANDA:XAUUSDLucasGrayTradingGold entered the new trading day with a clear recovery structure after yesterday’s bullish gap reaction, but momentum remains unstable as the market continues trading under mixed macro pressure. The current rebound is happening while liquidity conditions are still relatively thin ahead of high-impact US data later this week, especially Core PCE and GDP — two key reports that could heavily influence expectations around Fed policy into June. From the broader macro perspective, markets remain trapped between two conflicting narratives. On one side, slowing economic momentum, recession concerns, and softer oil prices continue supporting defensive demand for gold. On the other side, recent Fed communication still maintains a relatively hawkish tone, with policymakers repeatedly emphasizing that inflation remains sticky and rate cuts may stay delayed longer than previously expected. This macro divergence is creating a highly corrective and unstable price structure across gold. The market is no longer trending impulsively like previous months but instead reacting sharply around liquidity and macro-driven technical zones. Technically, gold is currently recovering inside a short-term ascending structure after defending the lower support zone successfully. However, price is now approaching an important confluence area around the upper demand + trendline zone near 457x–458x. This area represents the first major liquidity resistance where broader sellers could attempt to re-enter in line with the higher timeframe bearish structure. MAIN SCENARIO If gold continues recovering into the upper demand + trendline + FVG confluence zone, the market could face renewed selling pressure from higher liquidity areas. As long as price remains below the upper resistance structure, the broader bias still favors bearish continuation toward lower support zones. The market currently still looks more like a corrective recovery inside a broader bearish environment rather than the beginning of a strong bullish reversal. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO If gold manages to break and hold firmly above the upper trendline resistance, short-term momentum could extend higher toward the next liquidity zones as weaker USD flows and recession concerns continue supporting precious metals demand. Short-term bias: recovery inside corrective structure. Medium-term bias: still bearish below major resistance zones. LucasGrayTrading