LARA JAKES2026年5月27日周日，在俄罗斯对乌克兰首都基辅发动袭击后，工作人员正在评估建筑受损情况。 Roman Pilipey/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe trench warfare and heavy artillery on Ukraine’s battlefields in 2022 don’t look much like the war by air and sea that began when the United States and Israel attacked Iran.表面上看来，2022年乌克兰战场上的堑壕战和重炮轰击与美国和以色列袭击伊朗后开启的海空战争迥然不同。But similarities between the two conflicts soon became evident and remain so almost three months later.但两场冲突之间的相似性很快就显现出来，并且在近三个月后的今天依然如此。In both, the country with the more powerful military has been unable to vanquish its adversary. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia expected a quick victory when he launched his “special military operation,” more than four years ago. President Trump initially vowed that the “little excursion” against Iran, which started on Feb. 28, would last four to five weeks.在这两场战争中，军事实力更强的一方都未能战胜对手。在四年多前发动“特别军事行动”时，俄罗斯总统普京本以为会迅速获胜。特朗普总统最初也信誓旦旦，称始于2月28日的对伊“小小远征”只需四到五周便可收场。“For both Russia and for the United States, there’s a lot of unmet expectations about their military operations,” said Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iran and Russia and a professor at Sciences Po, the elite social sciences university in Paris, attributing it to “the hubris on both sides.”“无论对俄罗斯还是对美国而言，他们的军事行动都远未达到预期，”伊朗与俄罗斯问题专家、巴黎社科领域的顶尖大学——巴黎政治学院的妮可·格拉耶夫斯基说道，她将其归因于“双方的傲慢”。Over the last several days, negotiations have produced progress toward an initial plan for peace between Iran and the United States, though with much uncertainty, given the renewed American strikes against Iran on Monday. Whether or not an agreement is reached, the war will have provided lessons, along with the conflict in Ukraine, on the evolution of modern warfare.在过去几天里，伊朗和美国之间的初步和平计划谈判取得了进展，但鉴于美国周一再次对伊朗发动打击，前景仍充满变数。无论协议能否最终达成，这场战争都将与乌克兰冲突一起为现代战争的演变留下诸多启示。Technology reshaping warfare技术重塑战争Asymmetrical tactics have helped both Ukraine and Iran hold off stronger forces with which they could not compete in a conventional miliary confrontation.非对称战术帮助乌克兰和伊朗抵挡住了在常规军事对抗中根本无法匹敌的对手。Iran, for instance, struck at the United States by attacking its allies. It instilled fear in Persian Gulf states by sending one-way attack drones to hit military bases and energy facilities in countries like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It has also used the threat of mines and small armed speedboats to keep a chokehold on the narrow Strait of Hormuz.以伊朗为例，它通过打击美国的盟友来反制美国——向科威特、沙特阿拉伯等国的军事基地和能源设施派出单程攻击无人机，在波斯湾国家中制造恐惧。与此同时，它还利用水雷与小型武装快艇的威胁，牢牢扼住了狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡。Ukraine has assassinated Russian military officials in Moscow and regularly struck oil facilities, the lifeblood of the Russian economy. It has also used sea drones to neutralize Russia’s much bigger Black Sea navy.乌克兰则在莫斯科暗杀了俄罗斯军官，并持续打击石油设施——那是俄罗斯的经济命脉。它还利用海上无人艇牵制了规模远大于自己的俄罗斯黑海舰队。5月，在阿曼海港城市哈萨布附近的霍尔木兹海峡停泊的船只。Perhaps most indelibly, experts said, the two conflicts demonstrate how innovation and technology are reshaping warfare.专家们认为，也许最深刻的一点是：这两场战争都展示了创新与技术对战争的重塑。The United States has turned to drone-detecting systems loaded with artificial intelligence to protect the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, according to a person familiar with the agreement. Those systems were developed by Ukraine to defend itself from Russia.据一位知情人士透露，美国已在沙特阿拉伯的苏丹王子空军基地部署了搭载人工智能的无人机探测系统——这套系统正是乌克兰为抵御俄罗斯而研发的。In Lebanon, the militant group Hezbollah is attacking Israeli troops with explosive drones controlled by fiber-optic cables, like those commonly used in the war in Ukraine.在黎巴嫩，激进组织真主党正在使用光纤电缆控制的爆炸无人机攻击以色列军队——乌克兰战争中也常用类似手段。Layered systems of sensors, guided missiles and drones — and, in many cases, A.I.-enabled technology — that were honed in Ukraine and deployed in the Gulf, “are likely to rapidly proliferate around the world,” said Michael Kofman, a military expert and senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.军事专家、卡内基国际和平基金会俄罗斯与欧亚项目高级研究员迈克尔·科夫曼表示，由传感器、制导导弹和无人机构成的多层次系统——很多还搭载了人工智能技术——在乌克兰战场打磨成熟，后又部署到波斯湾地区，“很可能会迅速扩散到全世界”。In both wars, “we see the advent of mass precision on the battlefield,” Mr. Kofman said. Already, he said, Hezbollah and combatants in Mali have turned to similarly cheap and easily built technology, showing that such systems “will democratize access to mass precision on the battlefield for middle and small powers.”科夫曼说，在这两场战争中，“我们看到的是大规模精准打击时代的到来”。他说，真主党和马里的武装分子已开始采用类似的廉价、容易制造的技术，这表明此类系统“将使中小国家也能获得战场上的大规模精确打击能力，从而实现某种意义上的平权”。Similar attack strategies相似的攻击策略The fighting in the Middle East before the cease-fire took effect in early April featured the kind of drone swarms combined with ballistic missile attacks that officials and experts said debuted in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.今年4月初停火生效之前，中东战场上的交火呈现出无人机蜂群与弹道导弹协同打击的态势。据官员和专家介绍，这种打法正是在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的战争中首次亮相的。Iran delivered one-way Shahed attack drones to Russia in 2022, which Moscow used to strike Ukraine. That same model has been launched against Gulf countries by Iran this year as Russia is returning the favor with some military support to Iran. The extent of that support remains unclear, but according to U.S. officials, it includes shipping drone parts across the Caspian Sea.2022年，伊朗向俄罗斯提供了沙赫德单程攻击无人机，俄方将其用于打击乌克兰。今年，伊朗又将同型号的无人机对准了海湾国家，俄罗斯则投桃报李，向伊朗提供了一定程度的军事支持。这种支持的具体范围目前尚不明朗，但据美国官员称，其中包括经由里海向伊朗运输无人机零部件。3月，巴林麦纳麦一栋建筑遭无人机袭击后。Ms. Grajewski noted “some cooperation” between Russia and Iran in manipulating global location systems to confuse the opposition’s targeting guidance. Some ships linked to Iran appear to have recently spoofed locator trackers in the Strait of Hormuz — mirroring a long-honed tactic of Russia’s illicit shadow fleet of energy tankers — to evade detection by the U.S. Navy.格拉耶夫斯基指出，俄罗斯与伊朗在干扰全球定位系统、迷惑对方制导系统方面存在“一定程度的合作”。最近，一些与伊朗有关联的船只似乎在霍尔木兹海峡伪造了定位追踪器以躲避美国海军的侦测，这与俄罗斯长期用于规避制裁的秘密影子油轮船队所惯用的手段如出一辙。Russian anti-jamming equipment was found in an Iranian drone targeting a British base in Cyprus in March. European officials and experts are concerned Moscow will supply weapons if stalled peace talks break down and Iran resumes strikes across the region.今年3月，俄制反干扰设备在一架攻击驻塞浦路斯英军基地的伊朗无人机中被发现。欧洲官员与专家担心，如果停滞不前的和平谈判最终破裂，伊朗恢复对地区内的打击行动，莫斯科可能会进一步向伊朗提供武器。“We’ve seen evidence of Russia helping Iran with its attacks,” the British defense minister, John Healey, said in April at a meeting of allies who are sending military support to Ukraine.“我们已经看到俄罗斯帮助伊朗发动袭击的证据，”英国国防大臣约翰·希利4月在向乌克兰提供军事支持的盟友会议上说。He did not describe that evidence but added, “Putin wanted us distracted by the conflict in the Middle East.”他没有详细说明这些证据，但补充道：“普京希望我们被中东冲突牵制住。”Diplomatic ties外交关系The Iran war has strained some alliances, most notably between the Trump administration and Europe, where many leaders believe the conflict is unnecessary and unlawful.伊朗战争让一些联盟关系变得紧张，最突出的就是特朗普政府与欧洲之间。许多欧洲领导人认为，这场战争既没有必要，也不合法。It has also set off a worldwide scramble for energy supplies, with some countries turning to Russia for illicit but available oil and gas. And it has delayed the Russia-Ukraine peace process by diverting the United States’ attention to the Middle East.战争还引发全球能源争夺，一些国家开始转向俄罗斯，购买那些虽属违规却供应充裕的油气资源。与此同时，由于美国把注意力转向中东，俄乌和平进程也因此一再拖延。“I believe they were drinking Champagne in the Kremlin when President Trump started the war in Iran,” said Danylo Lubkivsky, director of the Kyiv Security Forum and a former Ukrainian deputy foreign minister.“我相信，当特朗普总统发动伊朗战争时，克里姆林宫里的人一定在开香槟庆祝，”基辅安全论坛负责人、乌克兰前副外长丹尼洛·卢布基夫斯基说But the war in Iran has also produced some surprising alliances, most evident in the new partnerships Ukraine has forged with Gulf states.但伊朗战争也催生了一些出人意料的新同盟关系，其中最为显著的，是乌克兰与海湾国家之间新建立的伙伴关系。In April, Ukraine announced new security agreements with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Those kinds of ties would have been unlikely several years ago when some of those Gulf states had previously sought to maintain neutral relations with Russia.4月，乌克兰宣布与卡塔尔、沙特和阿联酋达成新的安全协议。几年前，这样的合作几乎不可想象，上述部分海湾国家还刻意对俄罗斯保持中立。Kyiv wants to trade its drone technology and training assistance in return for Middle East diplomatic backing, energy deals and advanced air-defense systems, said Jana Kobzova, co-director of the European Security Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.欧洲对外关系委员会欧洲安全项目联合主任雅娜·科布佐娃表示，基辅希望用无人机技术和培训援助来换取中东的外交支持、能源协议和先进的防空系统。一名乌克兰军事教官手持一架“子弹”拦截无人机。这种无人机能够对抗俄罗斯“见证者”攻击无人机，它已成为海湾国家争相求购的热门装备。President Volodymyr Zelensky is hoping “to turn this crisis into an opportunity,” she said.乌克兰总统泽连斯基希望“将这场危机转化为机遇”，她说。At the least, Ms. Kobzova said, agreements with oil-rich states that include the sale of drone technology to them could prove lucrative to Ukraine’s burgeoning defense industry.科布佐娃说，至少，与石油资源丰富的国家达成的协议，包括向它们出售无人机技术，可能会为乌克兰蓬勃发展的国防工业带来丰厚回报。Europe has been a lifeline for Ukraine since the United States mostly stopped donating weapons and equipment to Kyiv last year.自去年美国基本停止向基辅捐赠武器和设备以来，欧洲一直是乌克兰的生命线。Its countries have bought weapons from the United States to send to Ukraine, and last month the European Union unlocked a loan of 90 billion euros, about $106 billion, to help Kyiv endure the ongoing war.欧洲各国从美国购买武器转交乌克兰，欧盟上个月批准了一笔900亿欧元（约合1060亿美元）的贷款，助力基辅坚守这场旷日持久的战争。But Europe’s ability to continue to provide robust support may depend on whether the shortage of fuel and goods caused by the Iran war drags down European economies, a situation that would worsen if peace is not achieved.然而，欧洲能否持续提供有力支持或许取决于伊朗战争所引发的燃料和物资短缺是否会拖垮欧洲经济——若和平遥遥无期，这种局面只会恶化。Riccardo Alcaro, an expert at the Institute of International Affairs in Rome, said the continuing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane for 20 percent of the global energy supply, illustrated how Iran can pose as significant a threat to Europe as does the one on its doorstep, in Ukraine.罗马国际事务研究所专家里卡多·阿尔卡罗表示，围绕霍尔木兹海峡的持续对峙表明，伊朗对欧洲构成的威胁并不亚于乌克兰战场这个近在咫尺的危机。这条航道承载着全球20%的能源供应。“The Ukraine war is still Europe’s main front,” said Mr. Alcaro, whose research focuses on Europe and Iran. “But the Iran war is not a secondary front, in the sense that it is really, really, really impacting Europe’s ability to contribute to its first priority — which is Ukraine.”“乌克兰战争仍是欧洲的主战场，”欧洲与伊朗问题专家阿尔卡罗说。“但伊朗战争也绝非次要战场，因为它真的、真的、真的影响到了欧洲为其首要事项——也就是乌克兰——提供帮助的能力。”Lara Jakes是时报驻罗马记者，报道冲突与外交，重点关注武器以及乌克兰和中东战争。她从事新闻工作超过30年。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site