RIVER AKIRA DAVIS, HISAKO UENO2026年5月25日日本食品巨头卡乐比表示，由于石脑油短缺，该公司被迫将薯片的包装更换为黑白样式。 Eugene Hoshiko/Associated PressCountries in Asia are reeling from a shortage of naphtha, a petroleum derivative used in a dizzying array of products, from household plastic wrap to industrial inks and medical devices.亚洲各国正受到石脑油短缺的严重冲击。石脑油是一种石油衍生物，广泛应用于从家用塑料包装膜到工业油墨和医疗器械等种类繁多的产品中。Early global alarm over the war in the Middle East centered on skyrocketing crude prices and gasoline spikes at the pump. But in East Asia, naphtha has emerged as the first major industrial disruption.全球对中东战争的担忧最初主要集中在飙升的原油价格和加油站暴涨的汽油价格上。但在东亚，石脑油已成为第一个重大工业扰动的源头。Japan and South Korea rely heavily on naphtha imported from Qatar and Kuwait, which are unable to export because of the more than two-month-long blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Even the naphtha processed by Asian refineries often comes from crude shipped through the strait.日本和韩国高度依赖从卡塔尔和科威特进口的石脑油，由于霍尔木兹海峡长达两个多月的封锁，这些国家目前无法进行出口。即使是亚洲炼油厂自身加工的石脑油，其原料原油也往往需要通过该海峡运输。The economic fallout is already visible. In Japan, consumer goods companies unable to secure a stable supply of naphtha are stripping colors from food packaging to conserve ink. Both Japan and South Korea are scrambling to secure alternative supplies ahead of June, the point at which some industry experts warn shortages could begin to affect manufacturing more broadly.经济负面影响已经显现。在日本，由于无法获得稳定的石脑油供应，一些消费品公司正在去除食品包装上的颜色以节省油墨。日本和韩国都在努力赶在6月之前落实替代供应，一些行业专家警告称，届时短缺可能会开始更广泛地影响制造业。In East Asia, naphtha “is the principal mechanism through which supply shocks from the Middle East are already transmitting throughout the economy,” said Toby Whittington, a lead economist at the advisory firm Oxford Economics. “It feeds into everything,” he said. “That’s why this is beginning to hit economies so hard.”咨询机构牛津经济研究院首席经济学家托比·惠廷顿表示，在东亚，石脑油“是中东供应冲击已经传导至整个经济体系的主要机制”。他说：“它延伸到了所有领域，这就是为什么它开始对经济造成如此沉重的打击。”由于石脑油短缺，一些韩国公司无法生产用于制造塑料的化学品。What is naphtha, and why is it in short supply?什么是石脑油，为什么会出现供应短缺？Naphtha is a petroleum product refined from crude oil, which is boiled and separated into distinct liquid layers. When blasted with extreme heat, naphtha breaks down into the foundational petrochemicals used in everything from plastics and synthetic rubbers to specialized inks and solvents.石脑油是从原油中精炼出来的石油产品，原油经过加热沸腾后被分离成不同的液体层。当接触到极高温度时，石脑油会分解成基础石化原料，用于制造从塑料、合成橡胶到特种油墨和溶剂等所有物品。Because it serves as the building block for so many chemical products, naphtha is often called the “flour” or “rice” of industry.因为它是众多化学产品的基石，石脑油经常被称为工业的“面粉”或“大米”。In Asia, naphtha supply chains have long been dependent on the Middle East. Japan imports most of its naphtha, and three-fourths of those imports originate from Middle Eastern producers. The naphtha that Japan produces domestically is derived from crude oil, more than 90 percent of which comes from the Middle East.在亚洲，石脑油供应链长期依赖中东。日本大部分石脑油依赖进口，其中四分之三的进口来自中东生产商。日本国内生产的石脑油源自原油，而这些原油中超过90%来自中东。That means that since the war choked off shipping lanes through the Persian Gulf and halted exports from crucial regional ports, more than 80 percent of Japan’s traditional supply lines for finished naphtha products have been abruptly severed. This leaves Japan and South Korea as the countries most exposed to the current supply disruptions, according to Oxford Economics.这意味着，自从这场战争切断了通过波斯湾的航道并使该地区关键港口的出口停滞以来，日本传统石脑油制成品供应线的80%以上已被突然切断。牛津经济研究院表示，这使得日本和韩国成为当前供应中断中风险敞口最大的国家。番茄酱生产商可果美等日本公司正因石脑油相关的油墨短缺减少包装上的彩色部分。What problems are the shortages causing?短缺正在引发哪些问题？In Japan, companies are doing everything they can to ration supplies that they warn could dwindle in the coming months. Major food conglomerates, including the snack manufacturer Calbee and the ketchup maker Kagome, have begun redesigning their packaging to use less ink, resulting in new, noticeably muted designs.在日本，企业正在竭尽所能控制消耗，他们警告称供应可能在未来几个月内枯竭。休闲食品制造商卡乐比和番茄酱生产商可果美等主要食品巨头已经开始重新设计包装以减少油墨使用，推出了色彩明显暗淡的新设计。Some supermarkets are reporting shortages of everyday items like plastic wrap. Diaper producers are raising prices, and some construction projects are being delayed because builders cannot obtain housing equipment and construction materials, such as naphtha-derived resins.一些超市报告称，保鲜膜等日常用品出现短缺。纸尿裤生产商正在提高价格。由于建筑商无法获得房屋设备以及由石脑油衍生树脂制成的建筑材料，一些建筑项目被迫延期。In South Korea, petrochemical giants have been forced to slash operating rates. Unable to honor delivery commitments without naphtha feedstock, some chemical producers have declared force majeure on shipments to major automotive and electronics manufacturers. There have also been reports of consumers hoarding daily goods like plastic bags.在韩国，石化巨头不得不削减开工率。由于没有石脑油原料无法交付订单，一些化学品生产商已向主要的汽车和电子产品制造商宣布出货遭遇不可抗力。还有报道称，消费者在囤积塑料袋等日常用品。The deeper concern is that the shortages will bleed into more sensitive industries, such as medical gear. Unlike consumer packaging, medical-grade plastics cannot easily be substituted or scaled down. In Japan last month, several patient and physician groups submitted a joint request to the country’s health ministry, urging officials to identify which medical equipment supply lines are most at risk.更深层次的担忧是，短缺会蔓延到医疗设备等更敏感的行业。与消费品包装不同，医疗级塑料无法轻易被替代或缩减规模。上个月在日本，几个患者和医生团体向该国厚生劳动省递交了一份联合请求，敦促官员明确哪些医疗设备供应链面临的风险最大。What are countries doing to cope?各国正在采取什么措施来应对？Faced with growing anxiety, governments in Asia have sought to project stability while racing to line up alternative shipments from outside the Middle East.面对日益加剧的焦虑，亚洲各国政府一方面试图展现稳定性，另一方面急于从中东以外地区开辟替代运输渠道。South Korea has increased naphtha imports from Russia, while Japan has turned to the United States. At the same time, Japanese officials maintain that the necessary volumes have been secured and that reported supply disruptions merely reflect bottlenecks in the domestic distribution network.韩国增加了从俄罗斯的石脑油进口，日本则转向美国。与此同时，日本官员坚称已落实了所需的进口量，媒体报道的供应中断仅反映了国内分销网络中的瓶颈。But with a growing number of companies warning of impending shortages, the public appears unconvinced. In Japan, the approval rating for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet fell sharply in a recent Kyodo News poll, with 70 percent of respondents expressing concern about the impact of disrupted naphtha supplies on daily life.但随着越来越多的公司警告即将出现短缺，公众似乎并不买账。在日本，共同社最近的一项民意调查显示，首相高市早苗内阁的支持率急剧下降，70%的受访者对石脑油供应中断对日常生活的影响表示担忧。Haruhiko Sakaino, an adviser to Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, said there is little evidence so far that Japan has secured sufficient alternative supplies of naphtha amid an intensifying global bidding war. In April, Japan’s naphtha imports fell 79 percent from a year earlier, according to data released by the Japanese finance ministry on Thursday.日本资源能源厅顾问境野春彦表示，在日益激烈的全球争夺中，目前几乎没有证据表明日本已经获得了足够的替代石脑油供应。日本财务省周四公布的数据显示，4月日本石脑油进口量同比下降了79%。If current conditions persist, the number of companies entering the “red zone” of production disruptions is likely to spike by June, said Mr. Sakaino, a former oil-refining official. For now, he said, “I don’t see any other way to recover from Japan’s current situation except by securing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”曾为炼油产业官员的境野春彦表示，如果现状持续下去，进入生产中断“红线区”的公司数量可能会在6月份激增。他说，就目前而言，“除了确保霍尔木兹海峡的安全通行外，我看不到有什么其他办法能让日本从目前的困境中恢复过来。”River Akira Davis常驻东京，报道日本经济和商业新闻。Hisako Ueno是常驻东京的记者/研究员，撰写日本政治、商业、劳工、性别及文化相关议题。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。