XAUUSD: Gold Recovers but Bearish Pressure RemainsGoldOANDA:XAUUSDDomicChainaLooking at the H4 chart, I see gold making a notable recovery after the previous sharp decline. Price is now trading around 4,560 – 4,570 and has climbed back above the short-term pink EMA, but it still remains below the larger blue EMA around 4,595 – 4,600. For me, this is not yet a confirmed bullish reversal. It looks more like a technical rebound to retest the nearest resistance zone. The bigger structure of gold is still not very strong. Previously, price broke down sharply from the 4,680 area, created a lower low around 4,470 – 4,480, and only then started to recover. When the market prints a strong H4 bullish candle approaching the larger EMA, I usually avoid chasing the move. The 4,590 – 4,605 area will be the key decision zone. If gold fails to close clearly above this region on H4, selling pressure can easily return. From the news side, the current environment remains sensitive. Reuters reported that the USD weakened during the Asian session on May 25 as expectations of a possible reopening deal for the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil below 100 USD per barrel, although the US side has not confirmed any quick agreement with Iran. This supports gold in the short term, but it is not enough yet to create a sustainable bullish trend. I’m also watching yields and Fed policy closely. Gold was previously supported when the USD and yields moved lower, but expectations of higher rates remain a major obstacle because gold is a non-yielding asset. The market had priced the probability of another Fed rate hike this year at around 58%, showing that monetary policy pressure has not disappeared. On Forex Factory, May 25 is a USD Bank Holiday, meaning liquidity could be thinner and price may move more erratically than usual. This week, I will closely watch USD data such as CB Consumer Confidence, Core PCE, Prelim GDP, Unemployment Claims, and FOMC member speeches, as these events can directly affect the USD, yields, and gold. My preferred scenario is that gold may not rise straight away. Instead, price could pull back to retest the 4,535 – 4,520 support zone. If this area holds and H4 candles show rejection wicks or strong absorption, I expect gold to retest 4,590 – 4,605. If gold breaks above 4,605 with strong volume, the next target I’m watching is 4,640, followed by 4,675 – 4,680. This is the old resistance zone where sellers previously controlled the market before the breakdown.