US and Iran have tentatively agreed to a 60-day ceasefire extension allowing Hormuz traffic to resume, but the deal lacks Trump's approval and Iran has not confirmed the text is finalised.A scan across where we are at on the war and oil. New info in bold below. Summary:Four sources told Reuters that Washington and Tehran have agreed to extend their ceasefire for 60 days, with Hormuz traffic to resume while nuclear talks continue; Axios first reported the agreementThe deal still requires approval from President Trump, and Iran's Tasnim news agency said the text of a potential memorandum of understanding had not been finalised or confirmed, per ReutersIran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted a US airbase; Iranian state television, citing local officials, said a US aircraft was destroyed near Bushehr, though the report was not confirmed by US authorities, per Reuters sourcingReports emerged that Iran targeted four American ships that attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz, per wire reportsThe US Treasury separately announced sanctions on eight vessels involved in transporting Iranian crude, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying Washington would not allow Iran to rebuild its military through oil revenues, per Treasury statementUS economic data showed April PCE inflation rising at its fastest pace in three years, driven by energy costs, while first-quarter GDP growth was revised down to a 1.6% annualised rate, per ReutersA tentative agreement to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days lifted equities and pressured the dollar on Thursday, but oil markets and traders remained deeply cautious as conflicting signals from both sides kept the outlook uncertain through the session.Four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that Washington and Tehran had agreed on a 60-day extension to the truce, with the deal also providing for the resumption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while negotiators work through harder issues including Iran's nuclear programme. News outlet Axios was first to report the agreement.The deal was far from done, however. President Trump had yet to approve it, and Iran's Tasnim news agency said the text of a potential memorandum of understanding had not been finalised or confirmed. The ambiguity was reflected across asset classes, with equities ultimately choosing to price in progress while oil traders remained unwilling to commit.Against that backdrop, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had targeted a US airbase, and Iranian state television cited local officials as saying a US aircraft had been destroyed near Bushehr, a report US authorities did not confirm. Reports also emerged that Iran had targeted four American vessels attempting to transit the strait. The combination of ceasefire optimism and continued military activity underscored the fragility of any progress.Oil settled mixed after a volatile session. Front-month Brent for July fell, while the more actively traded August contract edged higher, and WTI posted a marginal gain. An analyst noted that the market had developed an asymmetric response pattern, advancing cautiously on bullish Iran headlines while falling sharply on any suggestion the Hormuz chokepoint could reopen, a dynamic likely to persist as long as the ceasefire holds in its current form. US crude inventories fell for a sixth consecutive week, though the draw was smaller than analysts expected, offering little incremental support.Adding a further complicating layer, the US Treasury announced new sanctions on eight vessels carrying Iranian crude and petroleum products, even as the truce talks were under way. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would not allow Iran to fund its military through oil revenue. The move signalled that economic pressure on Tehran would continue regardless of the diplomatic track.Equity markets took a more optimistic read. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, with the Nasdaq gaining close to 1%. The dollar index fell 0.3% to 99, snapping two sessions of gains, while the yen traded near the 160-per-dollar level that has put intervention by Japanese authorities back on the radar. The Australian dollar, the top-performing G10 currency year-to-date, strengthened further.US economic data complicated the Federal Reserve's calculus. April PCE inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years, with total PCE up 0.4% month-on-month, though core PCE came in softer at 0.2%. First-quarter GDP growth was revised down to a 1.6% annualised rate. An analyst observed that the softer core reading and weaker growth together suggest the Fed may not need to maintain as aggressive a higher-for-longer stance as feared, though the geopolitical inflation overhang leaves the direction of travel genuinely unclear.With Trump yet to sign off and Iran still conducting military operations, the 60-day extension remains a draft, not a deal. The next 24 hours will be critical.---Oil remains the most sensitive barometer of war developments, with Brent and WTI swinging sharply in both directions through the Thursday session before settling mixed. The asymmetric price response noted by analysts, cautious gains on bullish Iran headlines but sharp falls on any hint of Hormuz reopening, reflects just how much of a premium the market is pricing into continued strait disruption. A confirmed 60-day truce would likely trigger a meaningful sell-off in crude given the scale of that risk premium, though the unresolved nuclear question and continued Iranian military activity suggest any relief rally in risk assets could prove short-lived. Fresh US sanctions on Iranian military oil shipments, imposed even as a truce was being discussed, add another layer of uncertainty to the supply outlook. Extend the ceasefire all you like, until SOH is open its just a piece of paper. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.