ADBE Bullish Reversal Watch: Hated Software Re-Rate SetupAdobe Inc.BATS:ADBECEO_of_WaverVanir_Int_LLCADBE Bullish Reversal Watch: Hated Software Re-Rate Setup Adobe is starting to look like one of the cleaner “AI fear got overdone” setups in large-cap software. Market context: The broader tape is still tech/AI-led. Indexes are at records, but breadth is narrow, which means the next leg may come from profitable laggards that can prove AI monetization. Adobe fits that profile better than the market is pricing. Fundamental/catalyst backdrop: - Record Q1 FY26 revenue: $6.40B, +12% YoY - AI-first ARR more than tripled YoY - Subscription revenue and RPO both +13% YoY - $2.96B operating cash flow in Q1 - $25B buyback authorization through 2030 - NVIDIA partnership for next-gen Firefly and agentic workflows - Firefly AI Assistant and multi-model creative AI stack - Semrush acquisition adds AI search/brand visibility angle - Q2 earnings expected June 11 Technical read: Weekly structure is double-bottom-ish near the $230-$240 zone after a long compression. Daily/LTF structure shows price-volume breakout behavior, rising volume with rising price, and a potential bull flag forming after the initial impulse. Key levels: Entry/reference: $259.21 Invalidation: below $241.86 T1: $287.34 T2: $308.94 Major supply: $340-$360 Higher weekly supply: $430-$460, then $560-$640 Data note: Model is LONG with 64% confidence, but statistical edge is not fully confirmed yet. That makes this a confirmation trade, not a blind buy. I want to see price hold the breakout/flag and reclaim $287 with volume. Thesis: AI fears compressed Adobe’s multiple, but the operating data still shows durable growth, cash flow, and emerging AI monetization. If the chart confirms, this can become a fast sentiment re-rate. Not financial advice.