Stages & Price Cycle - Understanding How Price MovesS&P 500SP:SPXemanuelaeliasStages the zoomed-out view Four stages, I identify primarily by where price sits relative to the 50 SMA: Stage 1 — Bottoming Price is consolidating after a decline. Selling starts to slow and you begin to see the first signs of buyers stepping in. Stage 2 — Rising Price is in an uptrend. Stage 3 —Topping: Price action gets more erratic. The move starts to stall, there are levels price can no longer sustain or push above. Watch for lower highs forming. Stage 4 — Declining: Price breaks down. Capitulation. Note: Stages don't always go in order. Topping doesn't always precede a decline, sometimes price resets and pushes back into Stage 2. Price Cycle the details within the stages Phase 1 — Decline & Retest Price falls below the moving averages. During the decline, there's typically some kind of retest back to the EMAs before continuing lower. Phase 2 — Stabilization & Transition Selling slows. Price goes sideways, more doji candles, range compresses. Key question: are we done going down? Phase 3 — Breakout & Retest Price breaks above the moving averages. The breakout is almost always followed by a retest, to or through the EMAs, before the next phase begins. Phase 4 — Expansion & Pullback Price expands, pulls back, expands, pulls back. This is where most upside trading happens. Track your pullbacks, 3 to 5 is the typical range before the move flattens or transitions. Phase 5 — Exhaustion & Transition Price struggles to push past its last high. Movement gets erratic. First break of the 50 SMA can be a signal. Price needs to break down and stabilize before it can attempt another leg up. The Multi-Timeframe Layer Every timeframe has its own stage and price cycle running simultaneously When the daily is range-bound or topping, you can drop to the hourly and trade shorter moves through the same 5 phases When the daily is in a clean Stage 2 uptrend, the hourly will be cycling through all 5 phases within that move — use it to time entries and exits