S&P 500: are 8,000 points a credible target by year-end?S&P 500SP:SPXSwissquoteThe S&P 500 has continued to post new all-time highs, driven by the technology sector and the semiconductor segment. While pessimists call for a stock market crash every day that never materializes, as the tech sector continues to deliver strong results, what can we reasonably expect for the S&P 500 by the end of the year? Everything here comes down to what is reasonable and methodologically sound. Since mid-April, the S&P 500 index has been setting new all-time highs after breaking through technical resistance at 7,000 points. When an index enters price discovery, several approaches can be used to project targets. Here, I aim to build a reasonable projection toward year-end, while acknowledging (and I want to stress this point) that short-term corrections will always occur, even within a broader upward medium-term trend. In the short term, the S&P 500 could for example retrace back toward its 50-day moving average before resuming its upward trajectory. There are two main approaches to multi-month projections, up to year-end: • A technical analysis approach, using theoretical price targets (such as Fibonacci extensions and fractal structures) • A fundamental market approach, especially valuation multiples The S&P 500 has reached new all-time highs since mid-April, but Q1 2026 corporate earnings and 12-month forward profit expectations are so strong that valuation multiples have not yet returned to their historical peaks. My fundamental projection is therefore simple: what would the S&P 500 level be at year-end if it merely returned to its historical peak valuation multiples, namely: • A Shiller P/E of 44 (the peak reached in 1999), with the current level now above 40 • A forward P/E of 23.5, which corresponds to this year’s peak Ultimately, this would imply an S&P 500 index between 8,000 and 8,200 points, simply through an expansion of valuation multiples toward their historical highs. The table below summarizes these credible fundamental year-end 2026 targets, based purely on a re-expansion of valuation multiples toward past peaks. This 8,000-point target is therefore both credible and reasonable from a fundamental standpoint, while still allowing for short-term corrections. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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