Bitcoin (BTC) traded below$73,000 on Monday, June 1, 2026, down more than 1% as it opened the week nearits lowest level since mid-April, roughly a month and a half of price erosion.The move keeps BTC under both the 50 and 200 exponential moving averages andback inside the consolidation that has capped the market since February.My read hasnot changed: the primary trend points lower, and the next measured objectivesits near $45,000, almost 40% below current levels. Bitcoinspot ETFs closed May with $2.30 billion in net outflows, the largest monthlyexit of 2026, putting Fed policy and Treasury yields at the center of thisweek's catalysts.Followme on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDkBitcoin TechnicalAnalysis: The BTC/USD Trend Stays DownBitcoinslipped back below the 50-day exponential moving average at $76,088 and remainswell under the 200 EMA at $80,993, a configuration that has defined the tapesince the February breakdown. On my chartI marked the local resistance with a dashed line drawn across the lows ofrecent sessions. That ceiling rarely survives in the medium term, and myanalysis points to BTC drifting toward the $63,000-$65,000 support zone, theFebruary-to-April floor.In 15 yearscovering crypto and metals, I have learned that the 200 EMA rarely lies abouttrend regime, and right now it sits above price as resistance rather thansupport. You can follow my full archive on my analyst page, Damian Chmiel.To pullpressure off the bulls, price needs to reclaim the $74,000-$76,000 band,reinforced by that same 50 EMA. Even then, a heavier wall arrives fast at the$81,000-$85,000 zone, built by the 200 EMA together with the November-December2025 lows.That bandis the real divider between the broken uptrend and the active downtrend, anduntil it gives way, every rally is a sell candidate in my framework. As Iargued in my March analysis, the burden of proof stays with thebears while these levels cap the market.How Low Can Bitcoin Go? FibonacciExtension to $45,000Stretchinga Fibonacci extension grid across the bearish impulse from January and thenover the correction that ran from February to early May, the 100% extensionlands near $45,000. That zoneoverlaps the structure built in 2024, where the $50,000 area first acted as alocal top and later as a floor. From current prices, that leaves Bitcoin almost40% of room to fall, and it stays my long-term bearish bet while the primarytrend points lower.I am notruling out a deeper slide if conditions allow, since the 161.8% extensionprojects toward the low-$20,000s on the same grid. As my earlier Fibonacci extension work mapped the upside targets, the sametool inverted now points down, and a full 100% retracement of the year's movereads as the base case for the bears, not a tail risk.Why It Is HappeningThe sellinghas a clear macro spine. Bitcoin spot ETFs shed $2.30 billion in May, thebiggest monthly outflow of 2026 and the steepest since November 2025, as AprilCPI hit 3.8% and PPI jumped to 6%, the kind of prints that knocked Fed rate-cutbets off the table. The 10-yearTreasury yield near 4.7% and a firmer dollar have pulled capital towardincome-producing assets, with BlackRock's IBIT alone losing $448 million in asingle session during the May exodus. Bitcoin still trades with a high Nasdaqcorrelation when oil spikes, as I detailed in my April coverage of the Strait of Hormuz shock.JoelKruger, cryptocurrency strategist at LMAX Group, offers the counter-case."May delivered a healthy reality check for crypto markets," Krugersaid. He noted Bitcoin fell 3.58% in May and Ethereum dropped 11.17%, yet theweakness arrived while US equities held near record highs, pointing to acrypto-specific capital problem rather than broad risk-off. Thepullback triggered no mass liquidation, and Kruger argues much of the leveragethat amplified past selloffs has already cleared, leaving positioning healthierand the asset class more mature.Keydrivers behind the move:May ETF outflows of $2.30 billion, the largest monthly exit of 2026April CPI at 3.8% and PPI at 6%, erasing 2026 rate-cut expectations10-year Treasury yield near 4.7%, strengthening the dollarKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair, keeping the policy outlook hawkishUS-Iran tensions and volatile oil prices reinforcing inflation fearsBitcoin Price Predictions:Where I Stand Against the StreetExternalforecasts span a wide gap, and most assume a macro turn I do not yet see on thechart. Standard Chartered cut its target to $100,000 for year-end 2026 from$300,000, a downgrade that still requires a recovery my levels do not supportwhile price sits under the 200 EMA. CarolAlexander projects a $75,000-$150,000 range centered on $110,000, credible onlyif BTC first reclaims the $81,000-$85,000 band. On the bearish side, BenjaminCowen places a new cycle low as his base case for October 2026, which alignscleanly with my $45,000 objective.PeterBrandt flags one more investable low in September-October 2026 that may breakthe $63,000 swing, and as my coverage of his forecast noted, that timing fits theseasonal weakness. The $200,000-plus bull cases from Bit Mining and Nexo stayparked until ETF flows turn positive, a point the January institutional roundup framed and the later report on cut targets confirmed when Goldman Sachs andStandard Chartered trimmed their numbers.Bitcoin Price Analysis, FAQWhy is Bitcoin falling inJune 2026? Bitcointrades below $73,000 after spot ETFs lost $2.30 billion in May, the worst monthof 2026. April CPI at 3.8% and PPI at 6% erased Fed rate-cut bets, while the10-year yield near 4.7% strengthened the dollar. Price sits under both the 50and 200 EMAs, keeping the primary trend pointed lower.How low can Bitcoin go in2026? MyFibonacci extension across the January impulse and the February-to-Maycorrection projects a 100% target near $45,000, almost 40% below current pricesand inside the structure built in 2024. The first downside stop is the$63,000-$65,000 support, the February-to-April floor. A deeper 161.8% extensionpoints toward the low-$20,000s if selling accelerates.What is the key resistancelevel for Bitcoin now? The firsthurdle is the $74,000-$76,000 band, reinforced by the 50 EMA at $76,088. Thedecisive level is the $81,000-$85,000 zone, built by the 200 EMA at $80,993 andthe November-December 2025 lows. In my framework, that band separates thebroken uptrend from the active downtrend, and rallies stay sells until itbreaks.Will Bitcoin recover in2026? A recoveryneeds Bitcoin to reclaim the $74,000-$76,000 band and close above the 200 EMAnear $81,000, neither of which has happened. Standard Chartered targets$100,000 and Carol Alexander centers $110,000, but both assume a macro turn andpositive ETF flows after May's $2.30 billion exit. Until those align, my biasstays lower.What are analystspredicting for Bitcoin in 2026? Forecastsspan a wide range. Bit Mining and Nexo see $200,000-$225,000 in bull scenarios,Standard Chartered cut to $100,000, and Carol Alexander projects$75,000-$150,000. On the bearish side, Benjamin Cowen expects a new cycle lowaround October, and Peter Brandt flags another low in September-October thatmay break $63,000. My target sits at $45,000.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.