DAVID E. SANGER2026年6月1日President Trump likes his military and diplomatic victories quick, clean and decisive.特朗普总统喜欢速战速决、干净利落、一锤定音的军事和外交胜利。On his desk in the Oval Office, he keeps models of the B-2 bombers that took out three Iranian nuclear sites in one night, not quite a year ago. In the opening weeks of the Iran conflict this year, he talked often about replicating his success in Venezuela — “the perfect scenario,’’ he said — shorthand for overthrowing a troublesome leader with one quick commando raid, and replacing him with a pliant, American-friendly successor.他在椭圆形办公室的桌上摆放着B-2轰炸机的模型——就是不到一年前在一夜之间摧毁伊朗三处核设施的那种战机。在今年伊朗冲突爆发的最初几周里，他经常谈及复制自己在委内瑞拉的成功——他将其称为“完美的剧本”：通过一次迅速的突击行动推翻一个麻烦的领导人，并以一个顺从、亲美的继任者取而代之。But now, Mr. Trump has hit the stalemate phase of his presidency.但现在，特朗普已进入其总统任期的僵局阶段。The war with Iran is clearly at that stage. When he declared a cease-fire on April 7, Mr. Trump said on social media that the end of combat operations would be conditional on “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” It wasn’t. Even if commerce now resumes across the strait under a memorandum of understanding still under negotiation, it will still leave the future of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs exactly where they were in February: stuck in a further negotiation that the administration insists will be “time limited,” probably to 60 days.与伊朗的战争显然处于这一阶段。当他于4月7日宣布停火时，特朗普在社交媒体上表示，结束战斗行动的前提条件是“完全、立即、安全地开放霍尔木兹海峡”。然而事实并非如此。即使目前根据仍在谈判中的谅解备忘录恢复海峡通商，伊朗核计划与导弹计划的未来仍将停留在2月的状态：陷入进一步的谈判僵局，而政府坚称该谈判将“有时间限制”，大概为60天。But the Iranians sense Mr. Trump’s deep reluctance to restart combat operations that are deeply unpopular in the United States, and most Iran experts say they expect Tehran to try to stretch the negotiations for months or years — as they have with past administrations.但伊朗人已经察觉到特朗普极不情愿重启军事行动，因为此举在美国国内极不受欢迎。多数伊朗问题专家认为，德黑兰很可能像面对历届美国政府那样，试图将谈判拖延数月甚至数年。Then there is the Ukraine war, a conflict in its fifth year that Mr. Trump famously boasted he would end in 24 hours after taking office. Sixteen months after he was sworn in, he rarely mentions the war anymore, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently complained that he was tired of wasting time in endless negotiations, suggesting that he would be perfectly happy if some other country wanted to step in and play that role.再看乌克兰战争——这场冲突已进入第五年，特朗普信誓旦旦声称将在就职后24小时内结束这场战争。可在他宣誓就职16个月后，他几乎不再提及这场战争，国务卿鲁比奥最近甚至抱怨，他已厌倦了把时间浪费在无休止的谈判上，并暗示如果其他国家愿意接手这个角色，他完全乐见其成。For their part, the Russians have quietly made clear that they are tired of periodic visits from the president’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Mr. Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, according to people familiar with the negotiations. They say they want a stable, diplomatic process, with working groups and regular meetings. They also want an American ambassador to Russia — a job that has been open, astoundingly, for nearly a year.与此同时，据了解谈判情况的人士透露，俄罗斯方面也已私下表明，他们厌倦了总统特使史蒂夫·维特科夫和特朗普女婿贾里德·库什纳的周期性来访。他们希望建立稳定的外交进程，包括工作组和定期会议。他们还希望美国向俄罗斯派驻大使——令人难以置信的是，这个职位已经空缺将近一年。And there is Gaza. When Mr. Trump flew to Israel to celebrate the release of the last of the living hostages from the Oct. 7, 2023, terror attack, he enthused about a 20-point plan that started with the disarming of Hamas, the creation of an international stabilization force and, ultimately, rebuilding Gaza into a gleaming territory of glass office towers and seaside resorts. Eight months after that trip, Hamas has still not disarmed, except in fake, A.I.-generated videos. (One, sent out by Mr. Trump, depicts him and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sunbathing.)还有加沙问题。当特朗普飞赴以色列庆祝2023年10月7日恐怖袭击中的最后一批在世人质获释时，他兴致勃勃地介绍了一份20点计划，内容涵盖哈马斯解除武装、组建国际维稳部队，以及最终将加沙重建为一片拥有玻璃幕墙写字楼与海滨度假村的崭新土地。然而，那次访问已过去八个月，哈马斯仍未解除武装——除了在人工智能生成的虚假视频中。（其中一段由特朗普发布的视频，表现的是他与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡晒日光浴的场景。）While more aid is making its way into the territory, Palestinians are still sleeping in tents, the rat-infested rubble has not been cleared, and Mr. Netanyahu announced last week that the Israeli military would expand its control to about 70 percent of the Palestinian enclave.尽管更多援助物资正在陆续进入当地，巴勒斯坦人依然栖身帐篷，鼠患肆虐的废墟尚未清理，内塔尼亚胡上周更是宣布，以色列军队对这片巴勒斯坦飞地的控制区域将扩大到70%。Perhaps all of this is the inevitable result of a president with huge ambitions running into the brick walls of global realities. Perhaps it is the result of overreach, as Mr. Trump — infused with the success of his first two military adventures, into Iran and Venezuela — assumes that there is no task too big for the U.S. military.或许，这一切都是一位怀抱宏大抱负的总统撞上全球现实之墙的必然结局。或许，这也是冒进的结果——特朗普在对伊朗和委内瑞拉的两次军事行动中尝到甜头后，认为美国军队没有完成不了的任务。Some experts suggest that it arises from a fundamental misunderstanding of American power. As one of Mr. Trump’s close aides said recently, destroying nuclear sites from the air is what America does best, and controlling political events in nations like Iran, Russia and Ukraine is what the United States does worst.一些专家认为，这源于对美国实力的根本性误判。正如特朗普的一名高级助手近日所言：从空中摧毁核设施是美国最擅长的事；掌控伊朗、俄罗斯、乌克兰等国的政治走向则是美国最不擅长的事。“Foreign policy tends to be a long and difficult enterprise,” Richard Fontaine, a former top aide to Senator John McCain and now the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, said in an interview over the weekend. “Mr. Trump is not the first president to imagine quick, simple solutions to complicated and enduring international problems. Yet it is the sustained management and follow-through that often makes all the difference, not the grand and dramatic announcement.”“外交政策往往是一项漫长而艰难的事业，”参议员约翰·麦凯恩的前高级幕僚、现任新美国安全中心首席执行官理查德·方丹周末在接受采访时表示。“特朗普不是第一位想象能为复杂而持久的国际问题找到快速、简单解决方案的总统。然而，真正决定成败的往往是持续管理和后续执行，而不是轰动性的重大宣布。”Follow-through has never been Mr. Trump’s strong suit. To establish his bona fides for a Nobel Peace Prize, he liked to gather testimonials to the breakthroughs he made or invite leaders at the White House and hold a signing ceremony; if fighting resumes, he is unlikely to dwell on the implications.后续跟进从来都不是特朗普的强项。为了给自己争取诺贝尔和平奖的资格，他热衷于征集对其突破性成就的赞誉，或在白宫宴请外国领导人举行签约仪式；一旦冲突重燃，他不太可能去深究其中的影响。An exception is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where Mr. Trump has episodically admitted he underestimated the complexity of the problem, and perhaps his powers of persuasion.俄乌冲突是一个例外。特朗普曾偶尔承认，他低估了这一问题的复杂程度，或许也高估了自身的说服能力。“I’ve had cases where I had Putin all done and Zelensky wouldn’t make the deal, which shocked me,” Mr. Trump said in an interview with The New York Times in January, referring to Presidents Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. “Then I’ve had cases where it was the reverse. I think now they both want to make a deal, but we’ll find out.”“有些时候，我已经把普京那边全部谈妥了，结果泽连斯基不愿达成协议，这让我很震惊。”特朗普今年1月接受《纽约时报》采访时表示。“还有些时候情况正好相反。我认为现在他们都想达成协议，但结果如何，还得拭目以待。”In the nearly five months since that interview, Mr. Trump has repeatedly predicted a deal was near, and repeatedly it has fallen through. Today the Ukrainians feel more empowered. Their long-range drones and homemade missiles are reaching deep into Russian territory, striking critical energy sites, factories and laboratories that churn out key weapons components, and occasionally targets in Moscow. One of Britain’s intelligence chiefs, Anne Keast-Butler, said last week that nearly half a million Russian soldiers had been killed in a conflict that Mr. Putin thought would be over in weeks.自那次采访以来的近五个月里，特朗普多次预言协议即将达成，却一再落空。如今，乌克兰人的底气反而更足了。他们的远程无人机和自制导弹已深入俄罗斯腹地，打击关键能源设施、工厂和生产重要武器零部件的实验室，偶尔甚至攻击位于莫斯科的目标。英国情报部门负责人之一的安妮·基斯特-巴特勒上周表示，在这场普京以为数周便可收场的冲突中，俄军已有近50万人阵亡。Yet Mr. Rubio, who left the negotiating chiefly to Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, sounded the other day as though he had given up on moving either side to a peace accord anytime soon. “The U.S. stands ready and prepared to help do whatever we can to help facilitate the end of this war,” he told reporters on Tuesday. “And hopefully the opportunity will present itself at some point that we can play that role again.”然而，鲁比奥前几天的表态却仿佛已经放弃了短期内推动任何一方达成和平协议的希望，他把谈判工作主要交给里维特科夫和库什纳。“美国随时准备并愿意尽一切努力帮助促成这场战争的结束，”他周二对记者说。“希望未来某个时候会再次出现这样的机会，让我们发挥这一作用。”To some experts who have been playing a behind-the-scenes role in trying to spur negotiations, the administration’s mistake has been relying too much on episodic phone calls or visits of special envoys, without the day-to-day engagement of traditional diplomacy to keep talks moving.一些在幕后致力于推动谈判的专家认为，特朗普政府的失误在于过度依赖不定期的电话沟通或特使来访，缺乏传统外交所必需的日常接触机制来持续推动谈判。“This conflict is ripe for conclusion,” said Thomas Graham, a longtime American diplomat who served in Moscow before the collapse of the Soviet Union and managed a strategic dialogue with the Kremlin during the George W. Bush administration. “The mood has changed in Moscow. The battlefield is different: The Ukrainians have frozen the front line. The economic problems in Russia are building, and some political discontent is bubbling up. Conversations inside the Kremlin are on ‘How do we present this as a victory?’”“这场冲突已经到了可以结束的时候了，”长期担任美国外交官的托马斯·格雷厄姆说道，他曾于苏联解体前在莫斯科任职，并在乔治·W·布什政府期间负责管理与克里姆林宫的战略对话。“莫斯科的气氛已经改变。战场局势不同了：乌克兰人已将战线冻结。俄罗斯的经济问题在加剧，一些政治不满情绪在冒头。克里姆林宫内部的讨论是‘我们如何将这场战争包装成一场胜利？’”But he noted that “you have to have a negotiating process,” and that is still missing. “I think they would like to see the process institutionalized,” Mr. Graham added, “so it’s more than a couple of envoys talking to Putin.”但他指出，“你必须有一个谈判进程”，而这一点目前依然缺失。“我认为他们希望看到这个进程制度化，”格雷厄姆补充说，“而不仅仅是几个特使跟普京谈。”Iran is a particularly complex form of stalemate.伊朗则是另一种特别复杂的僵局。During the negotiations with Iran in Geneva in February, Mr. Witkoff said in an interview with Fox News that Mr. Trump was “curious as to why they haven’t — I don’t want to use the word ‘capitulated,’ but why they haven’t capitulated.”2月在日内瓦与伊朗举行谈判期间，维特科夫在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，特朗普“很想知道他们为什么没有——我不想用‘屈服’这个词——但为什么他们没有屈服”。Mr. Trump asked the same question in the opening weeks of the war. He declared that the only outcome acceptable to him would be an Iranian “unconditional surrender.”特朗普在战争爆发的最初几周也提出了同样的问题。他宣称，自己能接受的唯一结果，是伊朗“无条件投降”。None of that happened. When I asked Mr. Trump, on his flight back home from China in the middle of May, why he thought resuming military action would bring him any closer to his political goals than the first round of strikes had, he erupted with a list of targets hit by the military, and pointed to a devastated Iranian air force and navy, but never answered the question of why Iran never gave up its enriched uranium or its missile program. He called the Times, and me, “treasonous.”这些都没有发生。5月中旬，在特朗普从中国返程的飞机上，当我问他为何认为恢复军事行动比第一轮打击更能推动其政治目标实现时，他激动地列举了一长串军队打击的目标，并指出伊朗空军和海军已遭重创，却始终没有回答伊朗为何从未放弃其浓缩铀或导弹项目这一问题。他称《纽约时报》和我本人“叛国”。That was two weeks ago. Now Mr. Trump is trying a mix of incentives, threats and revised demands to force the country into the kind of negotiation that was underway in February, when he and Mr. Netanyahu initiated the war.那是两周前的事。现在，特朗普正尝试结合激励、威胁和调整后的要求，迫使伊朗回到2月份他与内塔尼亚胡发起战争时正在进行的那种谈判。“He tried to bomb Iran, he tried to blockade Iran, he tried to bully Iran, and he is stuck,” Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser to President Joseph R. Biden Jr., and a key player in the Obama-era negotiations with the country, said recently.“他试图轰炸伊朗，试图封锁伊朗，试图恐吓伊朗，结果他被困住了，”拜登总统的国家安全顾问、奥巴马政府时期与伊朗谈判的关键人物杰克·沙利文最近表示。Should Mr. Trump and Iran’s clerical and military leadership agree to the accord, that would start a new round of negotiations that could stretch on.即便特朗普与伊朗的神权和军事领导层最终就协议达成共识，那将开启新一轮漫长的谈判。“The narrower problem of ongoing Iranian enrichment was solvable through bombing, at least in the medium term,’’ Mr. Fontaine noted. “The broader problem of the Islamic Republic is not.”方丹指出：“通过轰炸，伊朗持续铀浓缩这一较为具体的问题至少在中期内是可以解决的。但伊斯兰共和国这个更为宽泛的问题却无法靠轰炸解决。”Mr. Trump ran into similar discoveries in Gaza. There, he successfully brokered a truce between Israel and Hamas, and all hostages, both dead and alive, were released. But everything after that has stalled, and Mr. Trump lost focus as the Iran conflict consumed attention.特朗普在加沙问题上也遭遇了类似的困境。在那里，他成功斡旋以色列与哈马斯之间的停火，所有人质——无论生死——均已获释。但此后的一切陷入停滞，伊朗冲突的爆发更使特朗普无暇顾及加沙局势。A new Palestinian administration, which Mr. Trump suggested would be in place in months, has not entered the territory to take charge of rebuilding the cities. Mr. Trump’s “Board of Peace,” which was supposed to oversee the rebuilding and investment effort, has barely gotten out of the starting gate. And Israel continues bombardments almost daily.特朗普曾表示将在数月内就位的巴勒斯坦新政府迄今仍未进入加沙主持重建工作。原本应统筹重建与投资工作的“和平委员会”几乎尚未真正启动。而以色列的轰炸几乎每天都在持续。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有四本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。