NVDA: Tried looking for a buy zone, ended up writing a bear caseNVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDAHotsauceShoTYME Timeframe: Macro (Weekly/Monthly) Bias: Patiently Bearish R:R Near Current Levels TL;DR: Macro trend is obviously still bullish long-term, but the immediate order flow at these highs looks like a massive institutional distribution trap. Chasing a breakout here to the 1.618 extension (~$297) gives you an atrocious risk-to-reward ratio. Volume is completely drying up on the monthly chart, momentum indicators are showing heavy bearish divergence, and the volume profile below us is completely hollow. Real institutional value isn't at these local floors—it’s down in the untested 2023 range and the deeper 2022/Covid AVWAP anchors. If I'm wrong and it reclaims $227.55 on heavy volume? The trade is missed, not chased. --- 1. The Channel Trap & Bad Order Flow Originally I was going to wait for the bottom of the current trading channel to buy in. But when I looked at the lower time frame, the hourly for 5/29/2026 I started seeing things a bit differently The channel sequence was ugly once you took the makeup off: Congestion in the channel. A failed attempt to test upper supply. More congestion, followed by a clean breakdown out of the channel. A weak, temporary bounce off the April 2025 Anchored VWAP (~$184). A low-effort, low-volume markup attempt that was rejected. 2. Risk/Reward Just to make sure the trade was worth it and I am not better off buying SOFI, Bitcoin or GME, I wanted to check the risk/reward. I used a conservative target breakout to the 1.618 extension of the prior high/low range (~$297) and didn't like it. The numbers looked a little better at that April 2025 Anchored VWAP, since upside based on my estimate was limited, I wanted to lower entry risk and move my entry target down to where my original stop-loss would have been (~$170), and calculate a new stop from there. That new calculation dragged the stop-loss down to ~$141—which lands right at the ceiling of the previous trading range NVIDIA split and ran out of, but never actually back-tested. That was not an optimal stop loss. So, I adjusted again and made that prior range ceiling my actual buy zone. My entry dropped from ~$184 to ~$170 down to ~$141. 3. Shapes and Profile The failed supply tests form an M shape. Am I looking at a harmonic, a double top, a forming head and shoulders. I draw out the shark harmonic and look at the PRZ zone and notice the volume profile When NVIDIA split and skyrocketed out of its 2023 trading range, it basically teleported. On the volume profile, that 2023 reaccumulation base stands out. It has significantly more trade volume than any price area formed since. Just like the 2024 range ceiling, this 2023 base has never been re-tested. 4. Volume The volume on NVidia has been in decline on the higher timeframes since spring 2024. The price has been going up on nothing but the idea of Jensens leather lizard jacket and definitely not institutions 5. Macro Momentum Divergence Multiple touches of bearish RSI divergence Multiple touches of bearish divergence on the MACD histogram RSI is currently testing its trailing EMA 6. Lack of real liquidity below Volume profile since 2023 is weaker Lots of gaps below These AVWAPS look better The $81.71 AVWAP (2022 low) which lines up with a major daily gap fill at $68. The $50.28 AVWAP (Covid low) which perfectly intersects with that heavy 2023 volume profile vault and a deep gap closure at $30. In the famous words of the Notorius BIG I don't chase 'em, I replace 'em I am not interested in shorting at all. You would be crazy to short here. NVidia could very well skyrocket from here. I am fine being wrong but I have lost my interest going long until NVidia closes some gaps and comes back and shows some prior resistance is now support.