I said guaranteed and I meant it. It is.Why?For the same reason it was in 1974; the oil flow disruption is both global and significant, as it was then. I remind you that the Arab Oil Embargo lasted five months and the bad effects lasted eight years in the United States. Not weeks or months, years.Yes, we compounded the bad effects with bad policy. But we had far more fiscal room at that time than we have now; today we have basically none in that any stimulus that is attempted to be applied through Congress or The Fed will.......(Click link to read more)