FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWGold rallied strongly in the final part of last week on expectations of animminent US-Iran deal. The catalyst that started the rally was an Axios reporton Thursday saying that US and Iran had reached a 60-day memorandum ofunderstanding (MoU) and the agreement required final approval from Trump. Wegot another impulse higher on Friday after Trump announced on Truth Social thelift of the US naval blockade and a "final determination" on abroader agreement to follow shortly in the White House Situation Room. Gold started to give the gains back after the New York Times reported thatTrump did not reach a decision on any new deal with Iran in the Situation Roomas several important issues remained unresolved and continue to prevent a finalsettlement. After that, we got many other reports indicating that an agreementmight not be as close as it seemed last week. Moreover, the US struck againIranian military sites and the Iran responded with an attack on a US base inKuwait. The ceasefire is still supposedly intact. Despite the expectations for an imminent deal and the reopening of theStrait of Hormuz, we still haven’t got anything official. There’s just beenlots of noise. The main risk for gold remains the Federal Reserve.More and more policymakers are now pushing for dropping the easing bias, sowe can expect that to happen at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Moreover, if nothingchanges on the Strait of Hormuz side before then, we might get a hawkishsurprise as inflation continues to run hot and the US data remains resilient. In the short-term, a resolution and the reopening of the Strait will likelysupport gold on falling oil prices and increased rate cut bets. But if theStrait remains closed for longer and oil prices stay elevated, the risk of theFed being forced to hike anyway increases, and that’s going to keep weighing ongold.GOLD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that gold bounced from the new two-month lows and erased all last week’slosses. The price is now trading again right in the middle of the two keytrendlines, so there’s not much we can glean from this timeframe. We need tozoom in to see some more details.GOLDTECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee the price broke above the downward trendline and extended the rally intothe key resistance zone around the 4,585 level before pulling back. The priceis now retesting the broken trendline. We can expect the buyers to step inaround these levels with a defined risk below the 4,460 level to target a breakabove the 4,585 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to seethe price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new monthly lows.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the retest of the trendline with the swing low around the4,488 level acting as support. Again, this is where we can expect the buyers tostep in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into newhighs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increasethe bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have US ISMManufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we get the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, wehave the US ADP report and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get thelatest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the USNFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.