Belmont Notes: Renegade Could Very Well be the Belmont Favorite

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SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – Post positions will be assigned for the 158th running of the GI Belmont Stakes on Monday at Universal Preservation Hall. The morning line for the final leg of the 2026 Triple Crown will also be announced.Even though he finished second to Golden Tempo (Curlin) in the GI Kentucky Derby, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher thinks his Renegade (Into Mischief) could very well vie for favoritism on the morning line, which is put together by David Aragona of the New York Racing Association.“I think there is a good chance,” Pletcher said outside his office at the Oklahoma Training Track. “He has a very good record coming into it and people will look at the tough trip he had in the Kentucky Derby.”Tough trip might be an understatement. Owned by Mike Repole and Robert and Lawana Low, Renegade drew the dreaded rail in the Derby. The colt and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. got slammed coming out of the gate and was bounced around and shuffled back.Ortiz did get the horse in position, and he made a strong late move but got beat by a neck by 23-1 shot Golden Tempo. They will continue the rivalry in the Belmont. Renegade won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa and the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn before the Run for the Roses.“Look, you know (the Derby) is a race that is difficult to get a good trip,” Pletcher said. “We knew that when we drew post one, it could potentially be a problem and everything that we feared could happen, did happen. Despite that, it still looked like he had a good chance to win inside the sixteenth pole, and he just couldn't quite hold off the winner. Got to be proud of his effort and really disappointed at the same time.“We felt like he ran a winning race,” Pletcher said. “He just didn't finish first.”In the storied history of the Belmont, 42 percent of the morning-line favorites (66 of the prior 157 runnings) have won the race. Traditionally, the race has been run at 1 1/2 miles (from 1926-2019, 2021-2023).However, the last two years, the race was contested at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga because of ongoing construction at Belmont Park. The race will return to Long Island and the 1 1/2-mile distance in 2027.In the two prior Belmonts years at Saratoga, the morning-line favorite did not win. Journalism (Curlin), the 8-5 morning-line favorite last year, finished second behind Sovereignty (Into Mischief). In 2023, 9-5 morning-line choice Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) was third in the Belmont, which saw Dornoch (Good Magic) and Mindframe (Constitution) finish in front of him.Ocelli Will Skip Belmont, May Show Up At Saratoga This SummerThere will be no horse that competes in all three legs of the Triple Crown this year.That became official Sunday when trainer Whit Beckman said that Ocelli (Connect) would skip the GI Belmont Stakes. Ocelli, winless in eight career starts, finished third at 70.50-1 in the GI Kentucky Derby and fourth at 7-1 in the GI Preakness Stakes.No horse that ran in the first two legs of the Triple Crown will be running in the Belmont.Beckman said Ocelli will instead be pointed to the $500,000 GIII Ohio Derby at Thistledown on June 20.“The horse came out of the Preakness in great shape and was training really well,” Beckman said by phone from Louisville Sunday morning. “I had no problem running him (in the Belmont) but I just felt like we would wait for a little softer. Looking at the Belmont field, it's the most talented group of horses prior to the Derby.”Ocelli worked four furlongs in :48.60 (26/81) at Churchill Downs Sunday morning.Beckman said that if Ocelli runs a big race in the Ohio Derby, he could find his way to Saratoga for the summer.“That is the plan,” he said. “If everything goes well, we'll bring him to Saratoga and keep all the 3-year-old races on the table for sure.”In his eight career starts – more than any other Belmont Stakes horse – Ocelli has a second and four third-place finishes. He was also third in the GII Wood Memorial earlier this year.Despite not having a win, he has $729,000 in career earnings.“He is a very good horse,” Beckman said. “There is nothing in the morning that gives you the indication that he doesn't belong in top group of 3-year-olds.”Beckman will be represented at the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival by 5-year-old mare Regaled (Mohaymen) in the GI Ogden Phipps Stakes on Friday and 3-year-old filly Carmel Coast (Omaha Beach) in the Jersey Girl Stakes on Thursday.O'Neill Taking A Shot With Vitruvian ManIt can never be said that trainer Doug O'Neill doesn't aim high. He's doing it again for the GI Belmont Stakes.O'Neill will ship Vitruvian Man (Vino Rosso) to Saratoga to run in the final leg of the Triple Crown on Saturday. The horse is scheduled to arrive in the Spa City from O'Neill's California base at Santa Anita on Tuesday.O'Neill took a shot in GI Kentucky Derby with Robusta (Accelerate), who finished 14th at odds of 70.01-1. He then tried again with Robusta in the GI Preakness Stakes, and he was ninth at 28-1.Vitruvian Man, third in the GI Santa Anita Derby at 47-1 in his last start, figures to be one of the longest prices in the Belmont field.“We know he will be an outsider, and it will be a tough race,” O'Neill said by phone from California. “Got to go. You can't win it if you're not in it. We believe in that. In this sport, you live for being around horses that are good enough to get into races like this.”Vitruvian Man is owned by bred by Glenn Sorgenstein and has one win in six career starts. The Santa Anita Derby was his first start this year. Sunday, the colt worked six furlongs from the gate at Santa Anita in 1:13.80 (1/1).“After the Santa Anita Derby, Glenn and I were saying the farther the better for this guy,” O'Neill said. “We think the 1 1/4-miles will hit him perfect.”Antonio Fresu, who rode Vitruvian Man in the Santa Anita Derby, will ride in the Belmont. Sorgenstein recently sold an interest in the colt to Adam Kluger's Run Fast Racing syndicate (which includes hip-hop artists Lil Wayne and Lil Yachty).O'Neill is also sending Civil Liberty (Independence Hall) to run in the GI Woody Stephens and 4-year-old gelding Listenupshance (Shancelot) to the GIII True North, both on Saturday.O'Neill said Robusta came out of the Preakness in good shape and will be pointed to the GIII Ohio Derby on June 20.The post Belmont Notes: Renegade Could Very Well be the Belmont Favorite appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.