Gold Market Preview for MondayGoldOANDA:XAUUSDKallie_GGold Market Preview for Monday: 4540 is just the starting point; 4595 is the real lifeline! The gold market has just finished its last trading week of May, but the real big moves may have just begun. Currently, XAUUSD is trading around $4540. From the chart, gold has been in a high-level, wide-range consolidation phase for several weeks, but beneath the surface calm, funds are frantically changing hands. The biggest driving force behind gold recently is no longer safe-haven demand, but rather the ultimate game between the Fed's interest rate expectations and the situation in the Middle East. Many retail investors still understand gold with traditional thinking: "War is good for gold." But the market in 2026 has changed. Because the escalation of the conflict in Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, the market is beginning to worry about a return to inflation. Rising inflation means that the Fed's interest rate cut expectations will continue to be delayed, and there are even calls for another rate hike this year. This is why gold has corrected from its historical high of around $5600 to the $4300 area in recent months. The market is repricing: Safe-haven demand is bullish for gold, but high interest rates are bearish. These two forces are pulling in opposite directions. The technical picture has entered a critical battle zone. Looking at the current 1-hour chart: Gold is forming a very clear converging triangle structure. Upward resistance: Around 4595 Around 4700 (downtrend line) Downward support: 4490 area 4365 (key bullish support level) The current price is stuck around 4540. This is the central point of the entire structure. If it breaks through 4595 and holds during Monday's Asian session: First target: 4650 Second target: 4720-4750 Third target: 4900 area From a chart perspective, once 4595 is effectively broken, the bears' defenses will be wiped out by a stampede of stop-loss orders. Then the upward movement will be very rapid. But danger is looming. If 4595 cannot be broken, and the price falls below 4490 again in the US session: then the price is highly likely to retrace to 4365. Because the biggest hidden danger in the market right now is: US yields remain high. The US dollar has not experienced a trend collapse. Institutional funds are still waiting for new signals from the FOMC meeting in mid-June. In other words: Gold currently lacks a real catalyst to ignite a trend. Therefore, this week will likely see a breakout from consolidation. This Week's Trading Strategy My strategy is very clear: Aggressive Long Positions Enter around 4540 if it stabilizes Stop loss below 4485 Targets: 4595 4650 4720 Short Position Strategy On the first touch of the 4595 area Do not chase the price higher Observe the resistance level If a clear signal of a pullback occurs, you can try a small short position Targets: 4490 4365 Confirmation of a true main upward wave Only one scenario: A firm hold above 4595. Remember this: If 4595 is not broken, all upward movements are just rebounds. If 4595 is held, all pullbacks are opportunities. The most important news this week Market focus is entirely on: Speech by Fed officials US employment data Changes in US inflation expectations Latest developments in the Middle East Especially the Iran issue. As long as the situation continues to deteriorate and oil prices continue to rise, gold volatility will further increase. However, if the market begins to believe the conflict is easing, gold may actually experience a deep correction. A final message for all gold traders: The coming week is not about directional movement, but rather about market choice. The battleground between 4365 and 4595 is between bulls and bears. Whoever breaks through first will determine the direction for the first half of June. Those who don't know how to trade just watch the show. Those who understand the structure wait for opportunities. Professional traders only trade with certainty. Follow me, and I will continuously update my real-time gold trading strategies every morning, European, and US session, combining the latest news and market structure, so you can understand immediately whether the major players want to push the price up or down.