October was a month of hesitation, rather than one of dramatic trends. The US Dollar spent four weeks caught between a hawkish Federal Reserve and a steady stream of geopolitical headlines, rising and falling as markets recalibrated week by week. This kind of market fluctuation can be more demanding than a clean trend. A strong, one-directional move is at least easy to read, but when a Dollar softens ahead of an inflation print, recovers on an energy shock and slips again before an election, businesses are forced to make decisions without a clear signal. We’ve been tracking these moves every week, and looking back across October, three themes stand out: the Federal Reserve’s grip on the Dollar, oil as a second channel of pressure, and the quieter but costly story of widening spreads in African currency corridors. The Federal Reserve continues to write the script The Dollar's resilience rests on one expectation: the Federal Reserve is not finished tightening. After September's 25-basis-point increase took the policy rate to 3.75-4.00%, markets expected a pause in October but kept pricing a December hike as highly likely, at around 85% or more for most of the month. The odds of an October move were cut back after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided fresh guidance, but the December conviction barely moved. The data gave policymakers little reason to soften. October's Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs - monthly surveys of business activity in which a reading above 50 signals expansion - pointed to robust private-sector growth, with manufacturing at a 53-month high and output prices still elevated. Q3 GDP was expected to show annualised growth of 3.2%, up from 2.2% in Q2, driven by consumer spending and AI-related investment. Inflation was also expected to pick up: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure - was forecast to rise to 3.6% year-on-year in September, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Strong growth and sticky inflation are the textbook backdrop for a firm Dollar, but the AI story cuts both ways. As OCBC noted this month, AI investment supports US growth and yields, but if confidence in that cycle falters, stress that starts in the US could weaken the Dollar rather than strengthen it. The traditional safe-haven reflex cannot be taken for granted. Oil sets the mood If the Federal Reserve set the direction, oil set the mood. Brent crude traded between roughly $108 and $113 a barrel through the second half of October, as attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and stalled US-Iran talks kept a geopolitical premiumin prices. Moments of relief, from the US waiver on Russia-related sanctions to Qatari efforts to revive US-Iran diplomacy, did pull prices back, but only briefly. Energy prices impact currencies well beyond oil producers, and the Euro is the clearest example. EUR/GBP fell to a 17-month low of 0.8361 on 23 October, weighed down by energy import costs and fiscal worries in France, where the spread between French and German 10-year yields reached 137 basis points - its widest since 2012. Each time oil eased, the Euro found relief, but each time it climbed, the pressure returned. Sterling, meanwhile, has drawn support from expectations of a Bank of England hike. Gold told a similar story. Despite elevated geopolitical risk, it slipped from around $4,200 in mid-October to briefly below $3,900 at month-end, as rate expectations and a firmer Dollar outweighed safe-haven demand. When an inflation-focused Federal Reserve and geopolitical risk both favour the Dollar, even traditional havens struggle. What it meant for African corridors For businesses paying and receiving across African markets, these global forces arrive as very practical numbers - and the Nigerian Naira is a good illustration of this. NGN/USD opened the week of 12th October at 1,360/1,368, eased to 1,356/1,364 as the Dollar softened, then jumped to 1,376/1,385 on 26th October as the Dollar firmed ahead of the Federal Reserve. This week, at the beginning of November, it opened at 1,370/1,378. The net move was under 1%, but the swing within the month was larger, and timing decided which side of it a business landed on. Elsewhere the picture was mixed. The South African Rand and Ghanaian Cedi were broadly stable against the Dollar over the month, while the Angolan Kwanza weakened and the Central African CFA Franc softened before recovering some ground. In my view, the more important story lies in the spread, not the level. The gap between buy and sell prices is the real cost of moving money, and in several corridors it remains wide, or in some cases, got wider. The Rand opened November with a wider spread than it had at the start of October. The Malawian Kwacha is quoted more than 300 kwacha apart, after a gap of nearly 1,000 in early October, and on one Friday the Mozambican Metical had no published quote at all. When global volatility rises, liquidity in smaller corridors is often the first thing to thin out. That cost rarely makes headlines, but it shows up in every invoice and payroll run. Three lessons for businesses moving money First, timing matters. In October, the biggest currency swings came around a handful of scheduled announcements: US inflation figures, the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and the latest US growth data. These dates are published well in advance. Businesses that keep an eye on them can avoid exchanging large sums at the most unpredictable moments, and plan their payments accordingly. Second, prepare for two-way risk. Even within a broadly bullish Dollar trend, we saw sharp pullbacks. Treating every dip as a reversal, or every rally as a new trend, is how businesses end up converting atthe wrong time. Staggering conversions, setting rate thresholds and agreeing tolerance levels internally take much of the guesswork out. Third, look at total cost, not just the rate. In emerging-market corridors, the spread and the reliability of liquidity can matter as much as the direction of the Dollar. Transparent pricing and access to live rates are not luxuries; they are part of sound treasury practice. Looking ahead November opens with more of the same uncertainty. The US midterm elections on 3rd November, the Bank of England decision on 5th November and US payrolls on 6th November will all test the Dollar. My view is that markets may see some near-term Dollar softness as positions are trimmed after a strong run, but that the broader bullish structure remains intact while the Federal Reserve keeps the door open to a December hike. Whatever comes next, October confirmed that the Dollar continues to set the tone, in global and African currency markets alike. For businesses, the question is not whether they can predict every move, it’s whether they are prepared for the ones they cannot. No#ForeignExchangeShalom OsiadiCEO and FounderEsca 06 Nov, 2026