GBPNZD — Bullish Channel RetestBRITISH POUND / NEW ZEALAND DOLLARFX_IDC:GBPNZDRendra_AzrulsyahGBPNZD — Bullish Channel Retest | Weekly Outlook: November 9–13, 2026 GBPNZD remains within an ascending channel on the 1-hour chart, with the latest pullback testing lower-channel support around **2.3904**. A bullish rejection and recovery above this area would favour a move towards **2.4175**. A sustained breakout above that resistance would open the extended objective near **2.42497**, corresponding to the projected upper-channel resistance. Key levels: - Support: **2.3904** - First bullish target: **2.4175** - Extended bullish target: **2.42497** The fundamental backdrop supports a cautiously bullish bias. On November 5, the Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 25 basis points to **4.00%**, citing resilient activity and increased inflation risks. However, its market-participant survey had already anticipated a November rate of 4.00%. Further GBP upside therefore depends on fresh evidence maintaining support for the UK’s relative growth and policy outlook. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/november-2026) New Zealand’s labour market provides a contrasting picture. The November 4 release showed unemployment rising to **5.7% from 5.6%**, employment declining **0.1% quarter-on-quarter**, and annual labour-cost inflation at **2.1%**. My interpretation is that weaker employment and modest wage growth could constrain further monetary tightening, leaving NZD vulnerable against a comparatively resilient pound. (https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/labour-market-statistics-september-2026-quarter/) There is meaningful counterevidence. The RBNZ held its cash rate at **2.75%** on October 28 by a narrow 4–3 vote, and all members considered further tightening likely, conditional on the outlook. Stronger New Zealand data or more hawkish guidance could support NZD and weaken this bullish thesis. (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/10/ocr-held-at-2-75-percent) The main UK catalyst is the **GDP release on Thursday, November 12**. Broad-based growth above expectations could reinforce sterling’s support; weak activity or negative revisions would challenge it. (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateukjulytoseptember2026) New Zealand’s post-election developments also warrant attention. The November 7 results remain preliminary, with special votes outstanding. Changes in political certainty could create volatility in either direction. (https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2026/2026-general-election-preliminary-results) My base case remains a **conditional bullish recovery from lower-channel support**. Touching 2.3904 alone is insufficient confirmation. A sustained channel breakdown followed by a failed reclaim would invalidate the technical scenario. The fundamental evidence supports the directional bias; the precise targets come from the chart.