Trading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 09/11/2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDfntradinglabH1 Timeframe Friday’s NFP came in as a blowout — 165K vs the 65K consensus, with September revised up from 29K to 60K and unemployment falling to 4.1%. This was the kind of strong print that should have crushed gold, and initially it did, sending price briefly down to $4,033. But despite a 10-year yield jumping to 4.86%, gold shrugged off the data and recovered to close Friday near $4,070, then extended to $4,118 this morning. The precious metal logged a 5% gain last week — its largest single-week increase since late August — and is now holding that gain even after a blowout jobs number. The resilience here is the story. Gold absorbing a 165K NFP and not selling off hard is a meaningful shift in behavior. The midterm-driven narrative (Democrat Congress = less fiscal expansion = less inflationary pressure = Fed less likely to follow through on December) is overriding the data-driven narrative for now. December hike odds did tick back up after NFP, but the question markets are now asking is whether gridlock in Washington reduces the case for further tightening more than a strong labor market supports it. Looking at the H1 chart, the structure remains clearly bullish. Price printed two CHOCH H1 signals during Friday’s pullback, found support precisely at the OB H1 around 4,055 – 4,070, and has since displaced sharply back above 4,100 and is now testing the H1 FVG zone again at 4,110 – 4,120. The gap H1 at 3,886 – 3,890 is now a distant memory. This week, the focus shifts to CPI on Tuesday (November 10), which is the final major inflation print before December 9 FOMC. That data point is now arguably more important than NFP was, because it will either confirm or undercut the “less hawkish” narrative that has driven gold’s recovery. My view is constructively bullish while price holds above the OB H1 (4,055 – 4,070), but CPI on Tuesday is the swing factor. A hot print revives December hike conviction and would test the OB H1 as support. A soft print would validate the rally and open the path toward $4,200 and potentially $4,300. 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (primary) Zone to watch: 4,055 – 4,075 (OB H1 / post-NFP reaction low) Confirms if: any pullback into this zone holds and reclaims 4,100+ on H1 close Invalidates if: H1 close below 4,040 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (breakout) Trigger: soft CPI Tuesday + H1 close above 4,145 (Thursday’s high) Target: 4,165 – 4,200, then 4,250 – 4,300 as next major resistance band Invalidates if: price drops back below 4,100 post-CPI 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (post-CPI hot) Trigger: CPI above 3.8% headline or core above 2.7% YoY Target: retest of 4,055 – 4,070 OB H1, then 4,000 – 4,010 Invalidates if: H1 close above 4,145 post-release On key levels, near support is 4,055 – 4,075 (OB H1), then 4,000 – 4,010. Near resistance is 4,120 – 4,145 (H1 FVG / last week’s high), then 4,165 – 4,200. The week’s macro anchor is CPI Tuesday at 8:30 PM Vietnam time — same approach as always, don’t front-run, let the data confirm direction first. This reflects a personal view and technical read from FN Trading Lab based on current market structure, not financial advice or a specific buy/sell recommendation. Please watch price reaction at the levels mentioned and make your own decisions in line with your own strategy.