XAUUSD — 4083 Lost. Will 4033 Be the Next Trap? GoldOANDA:XAUUSDEthan_TraderPro Gold has just delivered a strong recovery, but the latest price action is telling a different story. After rallying from 3,921 towards 4,141, buyers ran into significant selling pressure near the upper liquidity zone. The rejection was followed by a sharp decline below 4,083, with gold now trading around 4,049. Here's the interesting part. Price is approaching 4,033, a key support area that could determine whether this is simply a correction or the beginning of another bearish extension. My short-term bias remains bearish below 4,083, with 4,033 and 3,963 as the main downside objectives. MARKET STRUCTURE — ARE SELLERS TAKING CONTROL? Gold's recent recovery began around the bullish Order Block near 3,921. Buyers pushed through 3,963 and 4,033 before reaching the major buy-side liquidity zone at 4,141. But the market failed to sustain those higher prices. From an ICT perspective, the rejection near 4,141 raises the possibility of a buy-side liquidity sweep followed by bearish displacement. The subsequent decline below 4,083 suggests that the short-term bullish momentum is weakening. However, the broader recovery has not been completely invalidated. For sellers to strengthen their position, I want to see a confirmed breakdown below 4,033. 4083–4106 — THE RECOVERY TRAP? The first major resistance sits at 4,083.391, followed by 4,106.712. These levels are important because buyers previously maintained higher prices around this area before the latest decline. If gold attempts a recovery but fails to reclaim 4,083, another bearish move could develop. A deeper rebound towards 4,106 would also be worth monitoring for rejection. But if buyers reclaim 4,106 and establish higher lows, the immediate bearish scenario would weaken. In that case, the upper liquidity near 4,141 could become relevant again. 4033 — THE MOST IMPORTANT LEVEL RIGHT NOW The support zone around 4,030–4,040 is the next major decision area. The recent Volume Profile shows meaningful trading activity around this region, making it an important reference for price acceptance. If buyers defend 4,033 and produce bullish displacement, gold could attempt another recovery towards 4,083. But here's the risk. If 4,033 breaks and price fails to reclaim it, the recent bullish recovery structure becomes increasingly vulnerable. That could open the door towards the next major support at 3,963. 3963 — THE NEXT DOWNSIDE MAGNET? The 3,963.802 region is my main downside target if sellers establish control below 4,033. This area previously acted as an important structural barrier before gold launched its strong upward expansion. A return towards 3,963 would represent a deeper retracement of the recent rally. However, reaching this level doesn't automatically mean the market will continue falling. A strong liquidity reaction and confirmed bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS) could create another recovery opportunity. If the zone fails, the bullish Order Block near 3,921 becomes the next lower reference. MY TRADING SCENARIOS Scenario One — Bearish Continuation (Priority) Gold remains below 4,083 and breaks the 4,033 support with sustained selling pressure. A failed reclaim of 4,033 would strengthen the bearish continuation scenario towards 3,963. Scenario Two — Recovery Before Another Drop Gold successfully defends 4,033 and begins recovering towards 4,083–4,106. If sellers produce bearish rejection and a confirmed lower-timeframe structure shift, another move towards 4,033 could develop. Scenario Three — Buyers Regain Control Gold reclaims 4,106 and maintains higher lows. This would weaken the short-term bearish outlook and potentially reopen the path towards 4,141. ETHAN'S KEY TRADING ZONES Current Chart Price: 4,049.790 4,141.670 — Major Buy-Side Liquidity The upper liquidity area where the recent rejection developed. 4,106.712 — Major Recovery Resistance An important resistance level for a deeper corrective rebound. 4,083.391 — Immediate Structural Resistance The first level buyers need to reclaim to reduce bearish pressure. 4,033.607 — Key Support / Volume Profile Area The most important near-term decision zone. A sustained breakdown could open further downside. 3,963.802 — Major Downside Target The next significant support reference if 4,033 fails. 3,921.664 — Lower Bullish Order Block A deeper demand area to monitor if the correction extends. Bearish Confirmation: Sustained trading below 4,083, followed by a confirmed breakdown and failed reclaim of 4,033. Bullish Confirmation: Strong support reaction, bullish displacement and a confirmed MSS. Short-Term Bearish Invalidation: Sustained recovery above 4,106 with a successful retest. ETHAN'S FINAL VIEW Gold has shown impressive buying strength from 3,921, but the rejection near 4,141 has changed the short-term picture. Sellers are now challenging the recovery structure. My preferred scenario is a test of 4,033, where the next meaningful reaction could emerge. If buyers fail to defend that support, 3,963 becomes the next important downside objective. However, a strong reaction from 4,033 could support a temporary recovery towards 4,083–4,106 before the market makes another directional decision. For now, four levels define my outlook. 4,141 — Where the recent selling pressure emerged. 4,106 — The resistance that could weaken the bearish outlook if reclaimed. 4,033 — The support that decides the next move. 3,963 — The downside target if support breaks. I don't need gold to follow every projected arrow. I want to see whether 4,033 becomes a floor for buyers or another broken support for sellers. Now I'm curious about your view. Will gold defend 4,033 and recover towards 4,106, or will sellers push XAUUSD down to 3,963? Comment your next gold target: 4033, 3963 or 4106? Let's compare our charts and see which scenario the market confirms.