BITCOIN — THE DROP FINALLY CAME!

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BITCOIN — THE DROP FINALLY CAME!Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTGustavoCorrea1Hello, TradingView friends! I’m Gustavo Correa, a trader from Brazil, and today I’m bringing you my full research on Bitcoin’s decline. There’s no doubt that the Midterm Elections affected global risk assets. However, in my view, this had already been priced in since October 5. I believe the main catalyst behind the entire November 5 sell-off was the news surrounding AI regulation and potential restrictions. Since this sector is heavily leveraged, any negative news or increased regulatory pressure can trigger massive deleveraging. And that’s exactly what we saw yesterday, as you can see in the S&P chart below: All of this also spilled over into Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole, dragging prices down. As I had pointed out in previous analyses, BTC was potentially forming a head and shoulders pattern. And it actually played out: the pattern has now been confirmed, with the right shoulder just completed, as you can see in the chart below. This formation was confirmed when we saw a strong move up on November 4, only for price to be precisely rejected in the $80K–$81K area. This zone aligned with the 50% and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. As you can see in the chart: Although price has once again reached the $75K level, I still don't rule out a move below $75K, potentially toward the 200-day SMA. If that happens, I'll be watching closely for a possible bear trap in that area, since the 200-day SMA has not yet been tested. Take a look: My base case remains that price could revisit the $67K–$73K region, where we have a Fibonacci retracement level and an unfilled CME GAP. I already have orders placed in these areas to improve my positioning. This is not investment advice. It’s simply my take on the current market situation. If you enjoyed my analysis, leave a comment and click the boost button to support my work here. See you next time!