ASTS - Investment Thesis Update Ahead of Q3 EarningsAST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class ABATS:ASTSTesi_Daniela_Radice AST SpaceMobile has made significant progress over the past six months, expanding both its commercial reach and industrial ambitions. Key developments: - Rakuten: New Japanese joint venture, with potential government support of up to $1 billion. - Blacklift: $1.3 billion agreement with Firefly Aerospace to develop a reusable launch vehicle, targeting its first flight in late 2028. - Satellite deployment: 13 BlueBird satellites in orbit following the June and August launches. - Commercial expansion: More than 60 mobile network operator partners, representing a potential reach of over 3 billion subscribers. Q2 2026 results: ASTS vs Tesla ASTS reported $31.5 million in revenue and a $230.9 million net loss, reflecting its early-stage infrastructure investment cycle. Tesla, in the same quarter, generated $28.24 billion in revenue and $1.11 billion in GAAP net income, with free cash flow of -$1.09 billion due to heavy investment. The comparison highlights two very different stages of development: Tesla is an established industrial business while ASTS is still building its infrastructure and commercial model. Market perspective ASTS previously experienced a sharp sell-off, losing nearly 65% from its May peak. In my view, the market reaction was excessive, pricing in launch delays, competitive threats and execution risks while largely overlooking the long-term infrastructure opportunity. Those risks remain real, but recent developments provide further support for the underlying business case. Next catalyst: Q3 2026 results, due today, November 9, after market close. The key indicators to watch are revenue growth, cash burn, capital expenditure, satellite deployment timelines and progress towards commercial service. The long-term opportunity remains substantial, but execution and capital efficiency will ultimately determine whether ASTS can turn its technological advantage into a profitable business. The chart above highlights the key technical levels and the main price magnet area. This is not a financial advice.