Earlier this week, I was talking to a few of my friends about Survivor 51, and I mentioned I thought Mike Pinsky could still win the game. They were absolutely shocked, and I can understand why. We’ve gotten confessional after confessional from the other players about how he’s a “bottom feeder” and a “sponge” and uses “bullying tactics.” It obviously hasn’t been a dream first half of the game for the Yankees employee, but as someone who follows how the show is edited very closely, I see some reasons for optimism. In fact, I think there are four players we can completely write off, and he is not one of them.Before I get into the three players I’m done with, let’s talk about Mike for a few paragraphs and why I still believe there’s a chance for him. Let’s start with confessionals. He only has eighteen confessionals for the season, which puts him behind seven players still left in the game, but when you actually dive into the specifics, it’s not that bad. He’s only gone to Tribal Council three total times, which means he hasn’t been a necessary part of the A-plot during most episodes. Despite that, he’s still gotten at least one confessional during every single episode, and during the last two episodes, he’s gotten ten confessionals, which is behind only Eric, Jelly and Sharonda. The show has found ways to include him, even when it hasn’t been necessary.The content itself also hasn’t been as consistently negative as you’d think. We all remember the confessionals from Thien An, Kristin, Kilby, Brady and others burying him and calling him a “floater” and every other name in the book. Obviously those are bad, but we’ve also gotten confessionals from other people saying they want to work with him. Jelly said she’s been playing the game with Mike since day one and wants to rekindle that relationship. Eric said he’s building a real bond with Mike both inside and outside the game. In addition, we have gotten some really good confessionals from Mike himself, ones that almost sound like winner confessionals. Two episodes ago, he told us he feels like if he can just get to the merge, he could win the game. This past episode, the show aired his voting confessional where he said the future of his game is related to that vote going his way. Well, that vote did go his way, and he did make the merge and start finding new allies.To be clear, I’m not saying you should gamble all the money in your bank account on Mike. He’s still a huge underdog. The show has dunked on him more in the edit than any winner since the infamous All-I-Gabler. There are plenty of reasons to be very skeptical about him winning, starting with how many players have said they don’t like him, but there are just too many hints of positivity for me to sell completely. He just won immunity and wrangled all the votes needed to get Brady out. He’s got a strong relationship with Jelly, who seems like she’s poised to go deep in the game. He’s had some dynamite confessionals talking about his path to winning and his game strategy. There are signs of life.Unfortunately, I can’t see those same signs of life for three other players, and unlike Mike, I am ready to write them off at this point. I can’t see any scenario in which Cristian Chavez wins the game. Objectively, it seems like he’s playing a really strong game out there. He’s got a bunch of close relationships, and some eliminated castaways during their exit press have mentioned that he’s a really shrewd strategist. He’s been in no real danger in any episode, but the edit is just not there to support a win. Every single winner since Survivor 41 has had at least one confessional during every episode. He’s had multiple episodes with zero confessionals and is tied for the lowest on the entire season with just ten. If he was the winner, wouldn’t the show, you know, give us his perspective a little more?(Image credit: CBS/ Paramount/ Survivor)The same can also be said for Thien An Nguyen and Carter Krull. Thien An is tied with Cristian among all the remaining players for last in confessionals with ten total, and she also had an episode where she got skunked. In addition, it feels like half of her confessionals have been about how much she personally dislikes Mike. During 50, most of Charlie’s entire edit was depicted almost exclusively through the lens of him hating Rizo. Thien An is getting the same treatment. It’s like she just pops in long enough to fire up some middle fingers at Mike and disappears into the background again. It’s funny but it’s also annoying because we know she was responsible for the Pantsless Patt blindside and seems to be one of the better strategic players on the board. I'd love to hear from her more.I’ve also lost all faith in Carter as a potential winner too. He’s gotten a lot more content than Cristian and Thien An, but most of his content has been camp life shenanigans. We got some great scenes of him building a sack swing with Brady and Mike. We got some great scenes of him getting confused while trying to find an advantage and then maybe accidentally on purpose mutinying. He’s gotten his character moments and has turned into a fan favorite, but we just haven’t heard from him very much strategically. He had one standout episode with ten confessionals, but outside of that, he’s only had eight confessionals if you don’t count that one episode, and he’s also been blanked twice. He’s not winning.I feel very confident in eliminating all three of those players. The show’s edit just doesn’t make any sense if they win. They’ve been background characters far too often, and there have been too many key moments in which we haven’t gotten their perspective. It’s not just that I would be shocked if they won, it’s that I would feel like the show was edited poorly if they won. To me, Mike is quite clearly ahead of that group by a large margin. Instead, I’d put him on a different tier with a few other players who have been more consistent parts of the show but also have clear warning signs to their edits. I’m thinking of someone like Eric who has gotten a ton of confessionals but also is frequently shown annoying the other castaways. I’m thinking of someone like Maggie who is a consistent presence but hasn’t been given as much credit in the edit for some big moves, most prominently sniping out Linnea. Like Mike, they’re definitely still alive, but there are valid reasons to be skeptical.The goal for the Survivor editors is never to tell the most accurate possible story. Instead, it’s always to tell the most engaging possible story that also accurately tells what happened. That’s an important distinction, and it’s the reason why I’m willing to write off Cristian, Thien An and Carter, but I’m still willing to hold out some hope for Mike.