4080 Rejection Puts 4030 In Focus | XAUUSD 09/11GoldOANDA:XAUUSDAdrian_NovaTraderGold is approaching a critical decision area after recovering from the 4035 liquidity zone. Despite the recent rebound toward 4073, the broader H1 structure remains vulnerable to further downside. Price is still trading beneath the descending trendline, while the previous bearish CHoCH around 4080 suggests that the recovery has not yet established a confirmed bullish reversal. For today's session, my primary focus is a potential bearish reaction around 4078–4082. If price fails to reclaim this resistance and forms a lower-timeframe bearish MSS, the next move could target 4035 liquidity. However, if this liquidity is swept and price produces a strong bullish displacement, a deeper recovery toward 4105–4118 becomes possible. 🎯 KEY LEVELS • Current Price: 4072–4073 • Immediate Resistance: 4078–4082 • Major Supply / POI: 4105–4118 • Major Resistance: 4140–4155 • First Downside Liquidity: 4028–4037 • Major FVG: 3960–3995 • Lower Demand OB: 3918–3932 • Major Support: 3872–3887 🔴 SCENARIO 1 – BEARISH CONTINUATION (PRIMARY) The descending trendline and 4078–4082 resistance area are the first obstacles for the current recovery. My preferred scenario is for price to retrace into this resistance area, sweep nearby BSL if necessary, and show bearish rejection. Confirmation Conditions: • Price fails to sustain above 4082. • M15 or M30 develops a bearish CHoCH/MSS. • A bearish displacement candle forms after the rejection. • Price retests a newly formed bearish OB or FVG. Trading Plan: • Entry Zone: 4078–4082 • Stop Loss: 4092 • TP1: 4055 • TP2: 4035 • TP3: 3970 • Extended TP: 3930 Trade Management: At TP1, consider reducing partial exposure and protecting the remaining position. At TP2, monitor the reaction around the liquidity zone. If price breaks below 4028 with strong bearish displacement, the lower FVG between 3960–3995 becomes the next area of interest. Invalidation: An H1 close above 4092 weakens this immediate rejection setup. A sustained recovery above 4118 would invalidate the broader bearish continuation scenario. 🟢 SCENARIO 2 – BULLISH RECOVERY The 4028–4037 zone is an important liquidity area. If price moves lower to collect SSL and immediately recovers with strong bullish displacement, the market could develop a deeper corrective move. Confirmation Conditions: • Price sweeps liquidity below 4037. • M15/M30 forms a bullish CHoCH or MSS. • A clear bullish displacement breaks the previous lower high. • Price successfully retests a bullish OB or FVG. Trading Plan: • Entry Zone: 4040–4044, only after bullish confirmation and a successful retest. • Stop Loss: 4025 • TP1: 4065 • TP2: 4080 • TP3: 4105 • Extended TP: 4118 If price reclaims 4080 and sustains above the descending trendline, the bullish recovery may extend toward the 4105–4118 supply zone. Invalidation: A decisive breakdown below 4028 without bullish recovery would weaken this scenario and expose the 3995–3960 FVG. 📊 TODAY'S MARKET DIRECTION My primary directional expectation is bearish, but I do not favor chasing downside at the current price around 4073. The preferred sequence is: 1. Price attempts to recover toward 4078–4082. 2. The market tests the descending trendline and nearby resistance. 3. A bearish rejection or lower-timeframe MSS provides confirmation. 4. Price moves toward 4055 as the first downside objective. 5. The 4028–4037 liquidity zone becomes the main area to monitor. 6. If downside displacement continues, 3995–3960 becomes the next potential destination. An alternative development is a liquidity sweep below 4037 followed by a strong bullish reversal. In that case, the bearish plan should be reconsidered rather than forcing a directional bias. 🧭 MY BIAS Bearish – 65% | Bullish – 35% The bearish scenario has the advantage while price remains below 4082 and the descending trendline. However, 4030–4037 is an important reaction zone, so a liquidity sweep followed by bullish displacement could change the intraday outlook. My main focus today is the 4078–4082 rejection area, with 4030–4037 as the key downside liquidity objective.