DAVID PIERSON, BERRY WANG2026年11月9日今年9月，中国领导人习近平与美国总统特朗普在华盛顿的美国国家档案馆。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesIn early 1945, the leaders of the United States, the Soviet Union and Britain met in the Crimean city of Yalta and struck a secret deal promising Moscow special rights in China in return for joining the war against Japan.1945年初，美国、苏联和英国领导人在克里米亚城市雅尔塔举行会晤，达成了一项秘密协议：作为苏联加入对日作战的交换条件，美英同意给予莫斯科在中国的特殊权益。But China was not at the table.但中国没有参与谈判。“It is a historical lesson of great-power politics that China will never forget,” said Xin Qiang, a U.S.-China expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. “It was all done behind China’s back and at the expense of Chinese interests.”“这是中国永远不会忘记的大国政治历史教训，”上海复旦大学研究中美关系的专家信强说。“这一切都是背着中国进行的，牺牲的是中国的利益。” More than eight decades later, Beijing is weighing whether to host a three-way meeting of President Trump, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping, China’s leader.八十多年后的今天，北京正在考虑是否主办一场由美国总统特朗普、俄罗斯总统普京和中国领导人习近平参加的三方会晤。 The meeting could affirm China’s ambition to be an indispensable global power on an equal footing with the United States, but it risks echoing the kind of great-power bargaining Beijing has claimed to resent. The prospect of such a gathering, floated by the Kremlin, has raised fears in Ukraine that Mr. Putin might push for a deal with Mr. Trump to end his war and decide the fate of Ukraine — without Kyiv’s involvement.这样的会晤可以彰显中国想成为与美国平起平坐、不可或缺的全球大国的雄心，但也可能重演北京声称反感的那种大国交易。克里姆林宫放风提出举行这样的会晤，在乌克兰引发了担忧：普京可能推动与特朗普达成结束战争的协议，在基辅缺席的情况下决定乌克兰的命运。1945年2月，英国首相丘吉尔、美国总统罗斯福和苏联领导人斯大林出席在克里米亚雅尔塔举行的盟国领导人会议。China confirmed on Wednesday that it is in talks with Russia and the United States about a meeting between the countries’ leaders, presumably on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, later this month. But it remained unclear if such a gathering would take place.中国周三证实，正在与俄罗斯和美国就三国领导人会晤进行磋商，据推测会晤将在本月晚些时候于中国南方城市深圳举行的亚太经合组织峰会期间举行。但这样的会晤是否会举行，目前仍不清楚。How Ukraine Complicates China’s Decision乌克兰问题如何让中国的决定变得复杂China is wary of providing a platform for Mr. Putin to cut a deal with Washington over Ukraine.中国对为普京提供与华盛顿就乌克兰问题达成交易的平台持谨慎态度。Doing so would contradict Beijing’s position that peace talks require participation from Ukraine and Europe. Mr. Xi appeared to make that point as recently as last week.这样做将与北京的立场相矛盾：北京认为，和平谈判需要乌克兰和欧洲参与。习近平上周似乎还强调了这一点。President Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany, who visited Beijing, told a German broadcaster that when he met with Mr. Xi, the Chinese leader made it clear that he did not think the United States, Russia and China would be discussing the fate of Ukraine in Shenzhen.访问北京的德国总统施泰因迈尔对一家德国广播公司说，他在与习近平会晤时，后者明确表示，他认为美国、俄罗斯和中国不会在深圳讨论乌克兰的命运。“You could see the irritation on his face. He even asked where such rumors were coming from,” Mr. Steinmeier said.“你可以看出他脸上的不悦。他甚至问，这些传言是从哪里来的，”施泰因迈尔说。“He explicitly stated that this is a European conflict and that the Europeans must be at the table,” he added.“他明确表示，这是欧洲的冲突，欧洲人必须参与谈判，”他补充说。 德国总统施泰因迈尔在北京。谈及习近平对商讨乌克兰问题的反应时，施泰因迈尔说：“你可以看出他脸上的不悦。”President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has also expressed reservations about the possible talks, saying last week, “I really don’t want this to be ‘Yalta 2, 3, 4’ when there is a redistribution of influence,” according to Ukraine’s state news agency, Ukrinform.乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基也对可能举行的会谈表示保留。据乌克兰国家通讯社报道，他上周说：“我真的希望这不会演变成某种‘雅尔塔2.0、3.0或4.0’式的局面，让各方重新划分势力范围。”Some in China view the secret bargain agreed on at the Yalta conference near the end of World War II as a betrayal. China’s then Nationalist government was pressed to relinquish its claim to what is now Mongolia and grant the Soviets special naval, transportation and commercial rights in Manchuria, in northeastern China.一些中国人认为，第二次世界大战接近尾声时雅尔塔会议达成的秘密交易是一种背叛。当时的中国国民政府受到压力，被迫放弃对今蒙古国领土的主权主张，并给予苏联在中国东北满洲地区的特殊海军、交通运输和商业权益。A modern-day huddle involving the world’s three biggest nuclear-armed states would sit awkwardly with the image that Beijing has sought to project of itself as a champion for the interests of weaker nations. (In reality, China is not shy about flexing its muscle against smaller countries like the Philippines.)如今，如果全球三大核武国家的领导人聚首，将与北京一直试图塑造的形象格格不入：中国一直将自己描绘为弱小国家利益的捍卫者。（事实上，中国在面对菲律宾等较小国家时，并不吝于展示自己的实力。）“No matter what Putin, Xi, and Trump might discuss, the imagery of them meeting would raise questions about whether it implied some kind of condominium of great powers that would disregard the interests of smaller nations,” said Joseph Torigian, a historian of the Chinese Communist Party at American University in Washington.“无论普京、习近平和特朗普可能讨论什么，他们会面的画面本身就会引发疑问：这是否意味着某种无视小国利益的大国共治，”华盛顿美利坚大学研究中国共产党历史的学者唐志学(Joseph Torigian)说。 “It would indeed be ironic for the Chinese if they decide that a trilateral meeting is nonetheless worth it for some reason,” he added.“如果中国人出于某种原因，仍然认为三方会晤值得举行，那确实会很具讽刺意味，”他补充说。Beijing Does Not Want to Discuss Nukes北京不想讨论核问题Mr. Trump has said he would like to use a three-way meeting with Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin in Shenzhen to discuss denuclearization. The last nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia expired in February, and China is rapidly building its nuclear arsenal.特朗普表示，他希望利用在深圳与习近平和普京举行三方会晤的机会讨论无核化问题。美俄之间最后一项核军控条约已于今年2月到期，而中国正在迅速扩充核武库。For Beijing, however, the topic is a nonstarter. Under Mr. Xi, China has shifted away from its decades-old strategy of maintaining an arsenal that would provide only a “minimum deterrent.” Instead, it is amassing a stockpile that could one day rival those of Washington and Moscow and has resisted placing limits on its development of nuclear weapons. It also has far fewer warheads — an estimated 620 — compared with more than 5,000 each for Russia and the United States, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.然而，对北京来说，这个话题没有商量余地。在习近平领导下，中国已经放弃奉行数十年的仅维持“最低限度威慑”的核武库战略，转而大力扩充一个有朝一日可能与华盛顿和莫斯科比肩的核武库，并一直抵制对其核武器发展设定限制。据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所估计，中国的核弹头数量要少得多，约为620枚，而俄罗斯和美国各自都超过5000枚。中国去年在北京的阅兵式上展示了战略核导弹。中国一直拒绝对其核武器发展施加限制。Asked last month if China would agree to discuss denuclearization in Shenzhen with the United States and Russia, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, deflected. She said that it was Washington that had the primary responsibility to disarm, adding that it was “neither fair, reasonable nor realistic” to ask China to engage in nuclear disarmament negotiations.上个月，当被问及中国是否愿意在深圳与美国和俄罗斯讨论无核化问题时，中国外交部发言人毛宁回避了该问题。她表示，华盛顿对核裁军负有首要责任，并补充说，要求中国参与核裁军谈判“不公平、不合理，也不可行”。Still, Chinese analysts suggest Beijing could agree to something narrower.不过，中国分析人士认为，北京可能愿意就范围更有限的议题展开讨论。Zhao Long, a security expert at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said China might be open to talks on reducing the risks around a nuclear conflict.上海国际问题研究院安全问题专家赵隆表示，中国可能愿意讨论如何降低核冲突风险。That could include improving channels for communicating during crises and ensuring that even in the era of artificial intelligence, the countries maintain human control over nuclear decision-making — an issue on which China and the United States agreed in 2024.这可能包括改善危机期间的沟通渠道，以及确保即使在人工智能时代，各国仍由人类掌控核决策。中美两国已于2024年在后一问题上达成共识。The Risks of Playing Host主办会晤的风险 For all its reservations, Beijing is unlikely to turn Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin down, said Ryan Hass, a former career diplomat and White House national security official now at the Brookings Institution.曾任职业外交官和白宫国家安全官员、现任职于布鲁金斯学会的何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)认为，尽管有诸多保留，北京仍不太可能拒绝特朗普和普京。Mr. Hass recently made a trip to Beijing and met with Chinese officials and scholars who were interested in discussing what Mr. Trump wanted to get out of a trilateral meeting.何瑞恩最近访问了北京，会见了一些中国官员和学者，他们有兴趣探讨特朗普希望从三方会晤中得到什么。 Mr. Hass came away with the impression that Beijing wanted to reap the rewards of a historic meeting, but was wary of the burden of making it a success.这次访问给何瑞恩留下的印象是，北京希望从这场历史性会晤中获得好处，却又担心要承担确保会晤成功的责任。今年5月，习近平在北京会见俄罗斯总统普京。“Xi typically avoids owning responsibility for high-profile diplomatic events with uncertain outcomes, so this event will stretch the Chinese side’s comfort zone,” Mr. Hass said.“习近平通常会避免为结果不确定的重大外交活动承担责任，因此，这场会晤会超出中方的舒适区，”哈斯说。To many officials in the West, China plays a key role in influencing Moscow because Russia has become so diplomatically and economically dependent on Beijing. In 2024, NATO accused China of being a “decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine,” urging it to halt shipments of “weapons components” and other technology that Russia needs to rebuild its military.在许多西方官员看来，中国在影响莫斯科方面发挥着关键作用，因为俄罗斯在外交和经济上已如此依赖北京。2024年，北约指责中国是“俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的决定性助推者”，敦促其停止向俄罗斯运送重建军队所需的“武器部件”和其他技术。 But to Beijing, China has little to do with the conflict that it did not help start and has not militarily supported. Some Chinese analysts suggest the most that Beijing could do was accommodate the talks while trying to distance itself from the idea that it can exert pressure on the Kremlin.但在北京看来，中国与这场冲突没有多大关系：战争不是中国挑起的，中国也没有向俄罗斯提供军事支持。一些中国分析人士认为，北京最多只能为谈判提供便利，同时尽量避免给外界留下中国能够向克里姆林宫施压的印象。“If the United States and Russia want to talk, then China can’t tell them not to,” said Song Guoyou, an expert on U.S.-China relations at Fudan University in Shanghai.“如果美国和俄罗斯想谈，中国总不能不让他们谈，”上海复旦大学中美关系专家宋国友说。If the three leaders met and the topic of Ukraine was on the agenda, he said, China would just be “a facilitator of dialogue, a provider of the platform, and a neutral witness.”他说，如果三国领导人举行会晤，乌克兰问题又被列入议程，那么中国只会是“对话的促进者、平台的提供者和中立的见证者”。 Valerie Hopkins和Jim Tankersley对本文有报道贡献、Pei-Lin Wu对本文有研究贡献。David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。Berry Wang是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻香港。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site