Morning Kickstart | Nasdaq futures rebound after rout as U.S. and Canadian jobs reports loom

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Life goes on after yesterday’s tumble in stocks. The Nasdaq 100 took the biggest hit, falling 6.36% for its worst day since March 2020. The selling went well beyond the tech-heavy index.Dow −3.4%S&P 500 −4.36%Nasdaq Composite −5.52%Nasdaq 100 −6.36%There’s a bid in Nasdaq futures this morning, but the Dow is still under pressure and European shares are broadly lower. That makes the early bounce a mixed signal heading into the U.S. and Canadian jobs reports. The 10-year Treasury yield is also higher, near 4.86%. If payrolls surprise, I’ll watch whether yields and the dollar confirm the first move in stocks or whether that move fades. The tech selloff also carried into Asian trading. investingLive Asia-Pacific news wrapThe U.S. dollar is higher across the majorsThe dollar has gained the most against the NZD (+0.82%) and AUD (+0.75%). It is also higher against the JPY (+0.40%), EUR (+0.39%), GBP (+0.37%), CAD (+0.30%) and CHF (+0.22%). The Swiss franc has held up best against the greenback.The dollar is near the session highs against the yen and near the strongest levels of the morning against the euro and sterling. The first test after payrolls is whether those extremes break and hold. A quick reversal back into the range would tell me the first move failed to attract follow-through. In the video above, I take a technical look and outline the levels for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD given the run higher in the US dollar today. Currency ranges ahead of the dataUsing the quoted session highs and lows and the 22-day average ranges (about a months trading range), the major currency pairs have for the most part met and exceeded their averages underscoring the volatility and movement today. EURUSD 1.1168–1.1234, 66 pips or 105% of average.USDJPY 157.26–158.37, 111 pips or 129% of average.GBPUSD 1.3382–1.3463, 81 pips or 116% of average.USDCHF 0.8148–0.8189, 41 pips or 77% of average.USDCAD 1.4009–1.4081, 72 pips or 111% of average.AUDUSD 0.6863–0.6942, 79 pips or 161% of average.NZDUSD 0.5541–0.5606, 65 pips or 141% of average.USDCHF has the most room relative to its normal range. AUDUSD and NZDUSD has already stretched the furthest with risk-off sentiment and prospects for lower growth hurting those pairs. USDCAD is also past its average before either jobs report has landed. With both reports due at the same time, the bigger move in USDCAD would come if the surprises pull the two currencies in opposite directions. Stronger U.S. data and weaker Canadian data would favor the upside, while the reverse would favor the downside.Stocks, yields and commoditiesAt 8:00 a.m. ET, U.S. futures were implying a split open in volatile trading.Dow −570 pointsS&P 500 +11 pointsNasdaq 100 +359 pointsThe selling continued across Europe, with Germany and the UK both down more than 2%.German DAX −2.21%UK FTSE 100 −2.05%French CAC 40 −1.63%Spanish IBEX 35 −1.27%Italian FTSE MIB −1.06%U.S. Treasury yields are higher across the curve. Yields are down from the 5.36% high reached a few weeks ago in the 10 year but the bounce back higher today is showing some constraint on the downside..2-year 4.491%, up 1.37 basis points5-year 4.629%, up 2.09 basis points10-year 4.864%, up 2.65 basis points30-year 5.284%, up 3.26 basis pointsWTI crude is up $0.47 at $90.99 after trading between $89.07 and $92.53. Spot gold is down about 0.5% near $4,068, while silver is up 0.58% near $52.07. Copper is little changed near $6.27, and Bitcoin is nearly flat at $76,031.North American calendar8:30 a.m. ET — U.S. October jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 65K after 29K, with private payrolls expected at +64K after +46K and manufacturing payrolls at +5K after +9K. Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% on the month after 0.1%, with annual growth easing to 2.9% from 3.0%. The average workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 hours.8:30 a.m. ET — Canada October jobs report. Employment is expected to rise 13.6K after a 68.3K decline, with unemployment forecast to hold at 6.5%. Last month’s losses were split between full-time jobs (−35.4K) and part-time jobs (−32.9K). I’ll watch whether full-time employment participates in any rebound.10:00 a.m. ET — University of Michigan preliminary November sentiment. The headline index is expected at 48.0, unchanged from October’s final reading. Current conditions are expected at 48.0 versus 46.7, and expectations at 49.5 versus 48.8.For the U.S. report, I’ll look at revisions and wages alongside the payroll headline. A payroll beat accompanied by softer wages could get a different reaction in yields than a beat with hotter earnings. That distinction matters for the dollar and for a Nasdaq trying to recover from yesterday’s selloff.In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.EURUSD — Sellers have the edge near the session lowEURUSD is at 1.1174, just six pips above the 1.1168 low. That low is the first downside target. A break that holds below it would give sellers more control. If the break fails, 1.1200 is the first upside barometer. A move back above that round number would put the prior close at 1.1218 in play, followed by the session high at 1.1234.USDJPY — Buyers are pressing 158.37USDJPY is at 158.29, eight pips below the session high at 158.37. The buyers have the stronger hand above 158.00, which gives them a nearby level to lean against. A break and hold above 158.37 would extend the move and put 158.50 in focus. Back below 158.00, the bias softens and the prior close at 157.66 becomes the next downside reference, followed by 157.26.GBPUSD — The 1.3400 area is the first barometerGBPUSD is at 1.3399. Staying below 1.3400 keeps the focus on the 1.3382 session low. A sustained break there would give sellers more control. If buyers reclaim and hold above 1.3400, the next upside references are the prior close at 1.3449 and the session high at 1.3463. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.