Gold Shows Bearish Momentum Ahead of NFPGoldOANDA:XAUUSDNouzTraderBased on the XAUUSD H4 timeframe chart, the price of gold is showing short-term bearish pressure following a strong rejection from the $4,130–$4,150 resistance area. XAUUSD The price is currently hovering around $4,046, following an aggressive rebound from the $3,870 demand zone. This suggests that bullish momentum is beginning to wane, with sellers regaining control of price action. Nevertheless, the current decline could still represent a correction within the preceding uptrend. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Price Action Analysis - ⚡Market Structure: In the broader market structure, XAUUSD maintains a bearish bias, characterized by the formation of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). The rebound from $3,870 toward $4,140 failed to break through the key resistance at $4,150; therefore, it is insufficient to confirm a full trend reversal from bearish to bullish. - ⚡Bearish Rejection: The price faced a significant rejection upon reaching the $4,130–$4,150 supply zone. The emergence of consecutive bearish candles indicates intensifying selling pressure, creating the potential for a further correction toward support levels at $4,020 and $3,975. - ⚡Break of Structure (BOS): While the previous rally managed to breach minor resistance levels at $4,020 and $4,080, the price has since fallen back below $4,080. This decline weakens the short-term bullish structure. Should the price break below $4,020—confirmed by a strong H4 candle close—the likelihood of a bearish continuation toward $3,975 will increase significantly. - ⚡Supply & Resistance: The $4,080–$4,100 range serves as the immediate resistance in the event of a technical rebound. Meanwhile, the $4,130–$4,150 zone remains the primary supply area that buyers must overcome to restore bullish momentum. - ⚡RSI Momentum: The RSI is hovering around 52 and has begun to trend downward after previously entering the overbought zone. This indicates that bullish momentum is weakening, though the RSI has not yet provided a strong bearish confirmation, as it remains slightly above the neutral level of 50. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis Based on the Elliott Wave approach, the rise from $3,870 to $4,140 may represent an ABC corrective structure within a larger bearish trend, rather than the start of a confirmed bullish impulse. - ⚡Wave A: The price experienced an impulsive rise from the $3,870 demand zone toward the $3,960–$3,975 range, acting as a reaction to previous oversold conditions. - ⚡Wave B: The price then underwent a temporary correction toward the $3,910–$3,920 area before buyers regained momentum. - ⚡Wave C: The subsequent rally pushed the price through resistance levels at $4,020 and $4,080, reaching approximately $4,140. This movement could mark the completion of Wave C within the ABC corrective structure. - ⚡Potential Bearish Impulse: Following the failure to sustain momentum at the $4,140 level, a decline toward $4,046 could signal the beginning of a new bearish impulse. If the ABC scenario is complete, the price may go on to form a five-wave bearish sequence. - ⚡Elliott Wave Confirmation: A breakdown below the support levels at $4,020 and $3,975 would reinforce the interpretation that the preceding rise was merely a corrective rally. Conversely, if the price manages to break back above $4,150, this bearish scenario would need to be re-evaluated. Elliott Wave Conclusion: XAUUSD may have completed a bullish ABC correction and could now be entering the next bearish phase. However, this structure remains an alternative scenario that requires confirmation from subsequent price action. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅Trading Scenarios 🎯Scenario A — Bearish Continuation (Primary Bias) If the price fails to break back above the $4,080–$4,100 resistance zone, XAUUSD may continue its decline toward the $4,020 support level. Should this support be breached by a strong H4 candle, the subsequent bearish targets lie at $3,975 and $3,920. A "sell on rally" strategy may be considered if a valid bearish rejection occurs within the resistance zone—not simply because the price is falling. 🎯Scenario B — Bullish Recovery (Alternative) If the price manages to hold the $4,020 support level and forms a bullish reversal, XAUUSD could retest the $4,080–$4,100 resistance zone. If buyers succeed in breaking above $4,150 with a strong H4 candle close, the potential for a bullish continuation toward $4,200–$4,217 re-emerges. This scenario would invalidate the premise that the ABC correction has concluded.