The bond market may have just confirmed the beginning of Wave 5United States 10 Year Government Bonds YieldTVC:US10YCOLOMBINI-TRADINGUS 10Y Yields From the historic 2020 low, the US 10-Year Treasury yield appears to have developed a textbook long-term Elliott Wave impulsive structure, potentially setting the stage for the final major upside leg. Technical Structure: Wave (1)-(2): post-COVID reversal Wave 1-2: initial inflation repricing Wave 3: aggressive Fed tightening expansion Wave 4: multi-month contracting triangle / consolidation Current breakout: possible launch of Wave (5) Key Levels: Primary resistance: 5.00% Conservative Elliott target: 5.55% Extended 1.618 target: 5.88% Macro Interpretation: If this count is accurate, the Treasury market is signaling: Higher-for-longer interest rates Structural inflation persistence Continued pressure on equity valuations Growth and tech multiple compression Potential credit and real estate stress Structurally stronger US dollar Cross-Asset Implications: Bullish: USD, energy, financials, commodity producers Bearish: long-duration tech, utilities, REITs, leveraged growth Bottom Line: Wave (4) consolidation may now be complete, and the recent upside breakout suggests the bond market could be entering the final stage of the secular bear market in bonds that began in 2020. A sustained move above 5% would likely trigger broader global asset repricing over the next 6–12 months. The real risk? It may not simply be rising yields — but rather that markets still have not fully priced structurally higher rates.