Climatic Exhaustion?VanEck Semiconductor ETFBATS:SMHNoFOMO_Climatic Exhaustion? Before I get silly comments, let me make one thing clear. I am not a semiconductor bear. If you look at my trade ideas you will see I was one of the very few that posted a trade idea for AMD when it was under $100, targeting the $450 region way in advance of us getting there. I told you to buy Tower Semiconductor at the lows. I was long ONTO innovation, AEHR semi and MPWR at the lows. Aside from the AI trade, I told you to long privacy altcoins – the only altcoins that performed well this cycle. I know the AI sector extremely well, hence why I was buying when others are fearful, years before you clowns had heard of chatgpt. But I have been selling now that others are greedy. In my humble opinion, we are witnessing a climatic exhaustion to the semiconductor trade. I am not calling the top here, I am not a fortune teller. However, I am pragmatic. I look at this move up in semis as a ticking time bomb. There are a few danger signs you need to be wary of: -The USD/JPY is at a double top – a spike in the Yen will negatively impact US equities (carry trade). - We are in the fifth wave of this move, which started in March 2020 -We are at the golden ratio extension target -RSI is at 85, last seen in 2018 - The war of choice, inflation spiking, rates may increase We could literally go 40% either direction here. This could be a bear trap and the shorts continue to get squeezed. However, I favour a move down but I will not be placing money on it, that would be gambling. It’s hard to say if it will be a mid or late cycle drop, the latter will be catastrophic. I’m watching this intently; I will not short this move but it will help me determine the next course of action in the market.