$ADBE Weekly — Long-Horizon Structural ThesisAdobe Inc.BATS:ADBECEO_of_WaverVanir_Int_LLCADBE Weekly — Long-Horizon Structural Thesis After 4.5-year, -67% drawdown from $700 peak to $230 low (May 2026), exploring whether ADBE has completed a multi-year Wave 2 correction with a 5-10 year Wave 3-5 setup ahead. Current state: ▪ Spot $247.24, +4.76% Friday recovery candle ▪ Weekly RSI 32.87 (approaching oversold) ▪ CHoCH printed at $246 ▪ Discount zone $230 = potential Wave 2 floor ▪ 0.146 fib retracement to extreme low Elliott Wave structural read (working hypothesis): ▪ Wave 1: 2018-2021, peak $699 (Nov 2021) ▪ Wave 2: 2021-2026, low $230 (May 2026, current) ▪ Wave 3: projected to $665-935 over 3-5 years ▪ Wave 4: projected retest of $560-600 zone ▪ Wave 5: projected $1,200-1,500 by 2033-2035 Fibonacci extension targets from current base: ▪ 1.236 ($665) — Wave 1 high retest ▪ 1.618 ($800) — standard Wave 3 target ▪ 2.0 ($936) — aggressive Wave 3 ▪ 2.618 ($1,155) — Wave 5 conservative ▪ 3.618 ($1,510) — Wave 5 stretch Catalyst case (fundamental): ▪ Trading ~12x forward earnings vs 5-year avg ~30x ▪ FCF remains $7B+ annually despite revenue compression ▪ Buyback program at depressed prices = float compression ▪ Enterprise contracts sticky (Photoshop, Premiere institutional lock-in) ▪ AI integration story (Firefly, Express) still developing ▪ Potential M&A activity in AI design space Risk factors: ▪ Figma IPO + Canva + Midjourney pressure on prosumer segment ▪ Internal enterprise LLM tools eating Adobe's moat ▪ Macro recession risk over 5-10 year horizon ▪ Wave 2 floor could break to $180-200 if structural AI thesis prevails ▪ Single-stock 10-year theses have ~30-40% historical accuracy at best Honest probability table (5-year horizon): 🟢 Wave 3 to $665-800: 35% 🟢 Wave 3 to $800-935: 20% 🟡 Range $300-500 base extension: 25% 🔴 New lows below $230: 15% 🟢 Full Wave 5 to $1,200-1,500 by 2033-2035: 5% Methodology note: Elliott Wave on weekly timeframes is a probabilistic framework, not a deterministic forecast. Wave projections shown are working hypothesis, not price targets. Position-able if confirmed by: 1. Weekly close above $260 with volume (Wave 3 initiation confirmation) 2. $230 holds on retest (Wave 2 floor structural) 3. Quarterly earnings showing AI revenue inflection Not investment advice. Long-horizon thesis exploration only. Position size and entry criteria require institutional flow confirmation before deployment. Process over prediction. Risk-first, always.