Client Sentiment Shifts in WTI Following Latest Price Pullback

Wait 5 sec.

Indices:- U.S. equity index futures are little changed as investors digest Nvidia earnings (see Stocks below) alongside easing inflation concerns driven by a sharp pullback in oil prices after updates on Iran negotiations (see Commodities below); the S&P 500 (+1.1% to 7,432), Nasdaq 100 (+1.7% to 29,297), Dow 30 (+1.3% to 50,009), and Russell 2000 (+2.6% to 2,817) all finished notably higher; Treasury yields moved sharply lower across the curve with the 10-year falling back below 4.6% and the 30-year moving away from 5.2%, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) still expects a rate hike out of the Federal Reserve but likelier next year as its near 50/50 on hike vs hold for this DecemberStocks:- Shares of Nvidia (+1.3%, -1.3% AH) fell back in extended trading after it released its quarterly figures where it easily beat on earnings and revenue, matched on gross margin, raised guidance, authorized $80bn in share buyback and hiked their dividend as well; yesterday’s session saw significant gains for much of the semiconductor sphere with AMD (+8.1%), Intel (+7.4%), and Micron (+4.8%) all finishing higher- SoftBank Group (+19%) surges after Nvidia’s earnings reinforced strength in AI infrastructure demand; the move also reflects SoftBank’s exposure via Arm Holdings (+15%)- Significant rally for shares of Samsung Electronics (+7%) after union workers suspend the originally planned 18-day strike following a tentative wage deal that they’ll vote on in the coming days- Travel and leisure stocks rallied sharply as oil prices dropped on hopes for easing Iran tensions: United Airlines (+10%), Delta Air Lines (+9.3%), Carnival Corporation (+9%) and Norwegian Cruise Line (+8.4%)- Retail and consumer names saw strong earnings-driven moves including Target (-3.9%) reversing earlier gains despite raising guidance, TJX (+5.7%) after a strong quarterly beat, Cava (+3%) after lifting EBITDA guidance, and Toll Brothers (+9.8%) on better-than-expected earnings- Intuit (-13.4% AH) down notably in extended trading after announcing major workforce reductions- Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (+3.9%), Kohl’s (+4%), GoPro (-4%), Krispy Kreme (+3.4%), Opendoor (+2.3%), AMC (+10.6%) after CEO Adam Aron disclosed a large personal share purchase, GameStop (+2%) after increasing its stake in eBay amid its takeover push- Most crypto stocks tracked cryptocurrencies higher: Coinbase (-1.1%), MicroStrategy (+0.7%), Mara Holdings (+5.7%), Gemini Space Station (+1.4%), Bullish (+2%), Circle Internet Group (+0.5%)Commodities:- Gold bounced back above $4.5K after briefly hitting a seven-week low as easing Treasury yields and softer oil prices helped relieve some of the recent pressure, while more volatile silver outperformed for the day getting into the $75s but not enough to move the needle much when it came to the gold/silver ratio hovering around 60- Oil prices (WTI) tumbled about 5% reaching $96s lows before partially recovering to around $99 after President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the “final stages” raising expectations that naval blockades and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could eventually ease, as well as reports regarding oil tankers passing through; EIA’s weekly energy inventory estimates showed draws for oil (-7.9m barrels)  and gasoline (-1.5m) while a small build for distillates (+0.4m)FX/Central Banks/Crypto:- Bitcoin recovers to get above $78K following a session where risk appetite improved and both yields and the dollar fell back, with ongoing struggles for Ether failing to properly best it in percentage terms and keeping the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio languishing at the lows- US Dollar Index falls back into the upper 98s as FX traders digested lower energy prices helping give energy-exposed currencies a lift off recent lows and a notable pullback in Treasury yields against somewhat hawkish FOMC minutes (see below); USD/JPY remains near 159 while AUD/USD briefly breaks beneath 0.71 following weaker-than-expected Australian labor data- Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting show that a “majority of participants highlighted…that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent”- European Central Bank (policymaker nominee) Moulin that it is too early to determine whether policy adjustments will be needed at the June meeting, emphasizing continued close monitoring of inflation dynamics- Bank of England’s Governor Bailey that financial market tightening is giving policymakers time to assess the policy pathCapital.com Client Sentiment:- Indices: Still heavy buy in the S&P 500 (65% from 66%) while falls out of it in the Russell 2000 (63% from 66%) and more so the Dow 30 (56% from 68%); elsewhere longs unwind in the DAX 40 (majority buy 57% from 64% yesterday) and Nikkei 225 (66% from 73%) while opt to go with the move in the FTSE 100 (from 76% reaching an extreme buy 78%)- Commodities: No longer extreme buy in gold (76% from 83% yesterday) as latest price gains see some longs unwind, while remain extreme buy in silver (85% from 87%); sentiment shifts in WTI (from a majority short 63% to a slight buy 53%)- FX: Small changes in sentiment for the key FX pairsData:- U.S. weekly mortgage applications (MBA) decline this time around (by 2.3%) as rising mortgage rates take their toll- UK April CPI y/y slows to 2.8% from 3.3% prior and core CPI 2.5% from 3.1%, m/m headline growth 0.7% still high even if below forecast; PPI prints jump- German PPI m/m still hot up 1.2% even if lower than the 2.5% prior, y/y reading emerges from contraction to reach 1.7%; EZ final CPI y/y 3% headline and 2.2% core- Australian preliminary PMIs for May show services fall into contraction (47.7 from 50.7); labor data clearly disappoints with the unemployment rate rising in April from 4.3% to 4.5% and employment change -18.6K- Japanese preliminary PMIs fall back for both services (50 from 51) and manufacturing (54.5 from 55.1)Today:- U.S. weekly claims, Philly Fed manufacturing survey, building permits, and housing starts (4:30 pm Dubai time), preliminary PMIs (5:45 pm), FOMC member speaks, 10-year TIPS auction, earnings from Walmart and others- Preliminary manufacturing and services PMI for the EZ (12 pm) and UK (12:30 pm)