Who Do You Like? Carasso, Finley and Sherack Handicap the Preakness

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TDN's Chief Correspondent Bill Finley is joined by Senior Contributing Editor Alan Carasso and Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack to handicap Saturday's GI Preakness Stakes at Laurel Park.FINLEY: Honestly, it's hard to like anyone in a race that looks like it will be a mad scramble and is made up of so many horses who really aren't Triple Crown caliber. The right move is probably to go for a longshot and just hope to get lucky.The pick here will be Pretty Boy Miah (Beau Liam), who is 15-1 on the morning line. The reasons he'll be a longshot are many: he drew the outside post in the field, he's never gone beyond a mile or around two turns and he's a speed horse in a race loaded with speed. But dig a little deeper and you can make a case for him. His 92 Beyer in his last start, an allowance win at Aqueduct, is the second-best, last-race Beyer figure in the field. Only Ocelli's (Connect)'s 94 in the GI Kentucky Derby is better. Pretty Boy Miah is also on the improve and may just enjoy the longer distance.Incredibolt (Bolt d'Oro) ran just OK in the Derby, but he only lost by four lengths. Considering that he was coming into the Derby off an eight-week layoff, there's every chance that he will improve. Looks like he's going to be an underlay at 9-2 or 5-1.Taj Mahal (Nyquist) is very live here for Brittany and Sheldon Russell. His last race, a win in the Federico Tesio S., was weird. He charged out of the gate, opened up by 10, came back to the field, then proved to have a second gear as he coasted home alone in the stretch. From the one hole, he's probably going to have to gun for the front, which is probably not where you want to be in this race.The question for Ocelli is can he duplicate his Derby effort? That race came out of nowhere and he benefitted from a pace meltdown.Iron Honor (Nyquist) is the morning-line favorite at 9-2, which is all about the fact that he is trained by Chad Brown, who is following the exact same pattern as he did with his two Preakness winners, Cloud Computing (Maclean's Music) and Early Voting (Gun Runner). They both passed the Derby after running in the GII Wood Memorial. The difference, though, is that those two put in sharp efforts in the Wood. Iron Honor, on the other hand, didn't show a whole lot when seventh in the Wood.Napoleon Solo is the only Grade I winner in the field, but will be hard to pick until he runs back to his 2-year-old form. Chip Honcho (Connect) will try to improve after a blah effort in the GII Louisiana Derby. That he is trained by Steve Asmussen is a plus.CARASSO: I don't think electricity had been invented last time I cashed a winning bet on the Preakness. In all seriousness, I think the Funny Cide–Midway Road exacta was about the most recent, so I won't blame you if you take this analysis with a grain of salt and lean on the opinions of my two esteemed colleagues instead.It doesn't take a skilled handicapper to see that this year's Preakness maps pretty quickly up front, and if that in fact plays out, the challenge is to land on the best finisher. I am taking a bit of a wing-and-a-prayer approach and hoping that just might turn out to be The Hell We Did (Authentic).I am willing to discount to some extent the modest and not-good-enough figure earned when runner-up in the GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. last time (Trendsetter was only OK when third in last weekend's GIII Peter Pan S.) and hoping the half-brother to G1 Saudi Cup hero Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) will come on for that first two-turn experience.If the pace heats up, as expected, I am looking for Luis Saez to have the Peacock homebred settled in midfield and praying they save him for a five-sixteenths dash for the cash. In his two-lifetime comebacker at Sunland (yes, it was over six), he turned in an eye-catching rally to score by 13 lengths, with a final quarter-mile in a slick :22.92. I'm not predicting that sort of sprint, but the point is that he seems capable of producing a quick final fraction that could see him scoop a big piece of the pie.Fun fact for those questioning his ability to stay this trip: dam sire Desert God is a half-brother to Better Than Honour (Deputy Minister), the dam of GI Belmont Stakes winners Jazil (Seeking the Gold) and Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy). Food for thought.Wouldn't be critical of anyone backing an Ocelli (Connect) or Incredibolt (Bolt d'Oro) to reproduce their good efforts in the Derby, but they seem iffy at skinny-ish odds. At the very least, The Hell We Did will offer value in all pools.SHERACK: Was high enough on Incredibolt (Bolt d'Oro) to pick him for second in the Kentucky Derby and will give him the nod in this wide-open Preakness. Far from embarrassed with a sixth-place finish at 23-1, beaten just four lengths, on the first Saturday in May, while making his first start since a visually impressive win around one turn in the Virginia Derby back on Mar. 14. There's plenty of pace to close into once again here, and he's tactical enough to sit much closer if needed as well. The two-week turnaround may actually be a good thing for him, too. He's only made one other start this season, a complete no-show in the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream Jan. 31. Don't let that outside draw scare you away, he's the horse to beat and you should get around 5-1 or so, too.Talkin (Good Magic), a well-beaten third in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S., showed enough promise at two to give him a look at a big price for underneath. Fired a four-furlong bullet in :47 4/5 (1/104) at Keeneland for this and picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. Capable of taking a move forward third start off the layoff for Danny Gargan.After completing the trifecta at 70-1 in the Kentucky Derby, let's see if the maiden Ocelli (Connect) can rally again for another small piece.The post Who Do You Like? Carasso, Finley and Sherack Handicap the Preakness appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.