From landslide to slide: How Keir Starmer became so unpopular so soon

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In the United Kingdom for the past few years, the more things change, the more they remain the same. The country is in a leadership crisis again, with ministers resigning and Prime Minister Starmer’s future looking uncertain, even though the cast of characters has undergone a dramatic change.And like with most geopolitical upheavals in the world right now, UK’s current political troubles too have the shadow of US President Donald Trump over them.UK’s Labour party swept to power in 2024 with a landslide win, ending a 14-year-period on the Opposition benches. Less than two years later, several ministers have resigned and nearly 90 Labour MPs have asked Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to step down, as the government’s popularity ratings slide. Starmer, ever the hard worker, has vowed to keep calm and carry on, though no one seems very enthused by that.The signs of much of what is happening today could be read in the nature of his poll victory itself.Winner, not necessarily popularThe 2024 elections were held in a Britain that was, like much of the Western world today, grappling with a changing society and a surge of nationalist sentiment.The Labour Party won 411 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. This was one of the best election results for Labour in over a century, though with a vote share of only 34% — the lowest for a ruling party in the UK. The latter lost a staggering 244 seats, winning about 24% of the vote share, down from 40% in 2019.The gainers in 2024 were the smaller parties, with the Greens winning 7% of the vote and picking up four seats. Nigel Farage’s nationalist and anti-immigrant Reform Party won 14% of the vote even though it picked up only five seats, showing the inherent limitations of the First Past the Post system, which India too has, in reflecting an inclusive national mood.Story continues below this adIn a broader sense, the 2024 outcome reflected the country’s mood, including disenchantment with the Conservatives, and the fallout from Brexit being felt as uncomfortable by ordinary Britons.On its part, the Labour party also got its act somewhat right – it got over being seen as extreme left wing by the replacement of Jeremy Corbyn as its leader in 2020 by Starmer, a centrist politician with a background as a public prosecutor, but with a certain lean-in with the Blairite wing of the Labour, the so-called New Labour. Pledging a national renewal in Britain, Starmer also sought a rapprochement with the EU.Also Read | Starmer is not in Epstein files, Trump is. Here’s why UK leader almost lost his chair, while US President gets supportThe British pride themselves on their special relations with the US. The election of Donald Trump, for whom Nigel Farage was a friend with ideas similar to MAGA, strained things. From the tariff war to rebukes over the Iran war, Trump has spared Starmer nothing, despite the latter’s efforts to cultivate him, including by using King Charles’ royal sheen to full effect.But Starmer’s bigger problem has been the appointment of Peter Mandelson as the UK’s Ambassador to the US. Despite his rather chequered past, Mandelson was given the post in the hopes of leveraging his personal ties with Trump. But revelations about Mandelson’s ties with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein — the accusations are of financial offences, not sexual— have been a nightmare for Starmer.Domestic discontentStory continues below this adNo matter Starmer’s sensible approach to ties with the EU and the fact that Britain has done reasonably well in economic terms in the past year, the prevailing mood is that of discontent. Inflation, though down from the high of 2022, is at uncomfortable levels, in part due to larger geopolitical factors.Most polls show Reform being preferred by over 25% of the population while Labour and the Conservatives struggle at around 20%. Reform is pulling voters from both Labour and the Conservatives, though the Greens are also gaining somewhat.In this scenario, the UK held polls for local council seats early in May. The results were not surprising, with Reform picking up over 1,300 council seats while the Greens picked up around 400. The Conservatives lost around 400 seats while Labour was down nearly 1,200 seats.With a population of 65 million, the UK has 650 House of Common MPs (India with a population of 1400 million has 542 Lok Sabha MPs), clearly demonstrating the importance of local elections for the country’s MPs. No wonder then that knives are out for Starmer within the Labour camp.Story continues below this adTo give one example of the government’s policy problems, it last year decided to trim the list of winter fuel payment beneficiaries to shore up its finances. The move sparked such outrage that it has been partially scrapped.On the thorny issue of immigration, too, the government has looked indecisive, while being blamed by both conservatives and liberals for not doing enough.The way aheadFor now, there is no clear alternative to Starmer within the Labour party. His supporters have pointed out that a long-drawn leadership contest will only destabilise the country further.Trump, meanwhile, after the recent elections has asked Europe (and the UK) to toughen up on immigration, open up the North Sea for oil production, and “stop windmilling the country to death”, a reference to his opposition to green energy, something the UK prides itself on.Story continues below this adWindmills might not be a real problem for the UK, but Starmer has definitely had the wind taken out of his sails.Manjeev Singh Puri is former Ambassador of India to the EU (when the UK was part of the EU)