Potential 40%+ Rebound Setup after EarningsFigma, Inc. Class ANYSE:FIGfelipegomesbwmSwing Trade Setup Risk/Reward: 1:2.2 base / potential 1:4+ with trailing ------ Trade Plan (Earnings Catalyst) Q1 2026 earnings will be released tomorrow after close. This is the trigger, BUT JUST IF THE MARKET LIKE THE EARNINGS. Entry: $21.75 (long on market confirmation of positive earnings reaction) Stop Loss: $20.66 (just below recent structure support, ~5% risk) Hard Target: $24.09 (~11% reward) Trailing Stop: If the market reacts positively to earnings releasing tomorrow the plan is to take profits via a trailing stop, as there is a chance the rebound reaches around $30, significantly increasing the reward. Invalidation A close back below $20.66 on volume would invalidate the setup. ----- Technical Setup Figma has shed approximately 86% from its all-time high of $142.92, reached just one day after its July 2025 IPO. After that kind of wipeout, the stock spent the past 14+ weeks in a tight consolidation, slowly forming what appears to be a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern — exactly the kind of structure that tends to precede a mean-reversion move in post-IPO wrecks that still have strong underlying fundamentals. Key technical observations: Stock reclaimed and held the 21-day SMA, confirming the first layer of trend repair Today's session added a gap-up with volume expansion, reclaiming the 8-day SMA — a momentum signal suggesting institutional accumulation beginning The base has been building for 14+ weeks, enough time to shake out the remaining IPO bagholders and stabilize supply ----- Fundamental Context This isn't just a chart trade — the fundamentals are building the floor. Q4 2025: Revenue of $303.8M, +40% YoY, accelerating from Q3's 38% Full-year 2025 revenue crossed $1 billion for the first time (~$1.06B) Net Dollar Retention hit 136% — the highest in 10 quarters, meaning existing customers are spending more Gross margins held at 84.76% Analyst consensus is pointing toward first GAAP profitability in FY2026 A board director (Reed Phillips) bought $36.5M of stock in late February near the lows — meaningful insider conviction The market sold this stock as if the business was broken. The business is not broken. The stock was just egregiously mispriced at the IPO and gravity did its job. ----- Why Did It Fall So Hard? Understanding the sell-off is part of the thesis: IPO mania + lockup expirations: Priced at $33, it opened at $85 and closed the first day at $115.50. That kind of gap between price and value creates a long unwind. Multiple lockup tranches expired across Q3/Q4 2025, flooding supply into the market. The last 35% of insider shares expires in August 2026. That has been a structural supply headwind for months. The worst of it should already be absorbed, making the technical base more meaningful. Google/AI fear: Google's free Gemini design tools raised concerns about Figma's pricing power and competitive moat. Class action (AI data): A lawsuit filed in November 2025 alleges Figma trained its AI models on users' proprietary design data without consent — ongoing legal overhang. None of these narratives are new. They've been priced in through a brutal 14-week base. Earnings are now the moment of truth. ----- This is a swing trade idea, not financial advice. Manage your risk.